I’m trying to get a better picture in my head of what good work looks like in this space—i.e, existing work that has given us improved strategic clarity. This could be with regards to TAI itself, or a technology such as nuclear weapons.
Imo, some examples of valuable strategic work/insights are:
Ajeya Cotra’s work on forecasting TAI via bioanchors
I’m curious as to any other examples of existing work that you think fit into the category of valuable strategic work, of the type that you talk about in this post.
I’m trying to get a better picture in my head of what good work looks like in this space—i.e, existing work that has given us improved strategic clarity. This could be with regards to TAI itself, or a technology such as nuclear weapons.
Imo, some examples of valuable strategic work/insights are:
Ajeya Cotra’s work on forecasting TAI via bioanchors
Niels Bohr (and other scientists) realising during the development of the nuclear bomb that an oligopoly on nuclear weapons could lead to relative peace between global superpowers. (https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/lessons-atomic-bomb-ord)
I’m curious as to any other examples of existing work that you think fit into the category of valuable strategic work, of the type that you talk about in this post.