People who have inside, semi-confidential information should think long and hard about whether it is socially beneficial for them to be trading on it on Manifold. There’s a real cost here; leaks motivate information originators to keep information closer to the vest next time, which hurts efficiency.
I know people value predictive accuracy, but the social value of this information leaking out a few days early seems minimal in comparison to the risks. If your best argument for insider trading is that it will make you some play money . . . then you very likely shouldn’t.
(In my profession, trading on attorney-client protected info will earn you a nice long suspension if not worse, so the very idea seems really foreign to me.)
People who have inside, semi-confidential information should think long and hard about whether it is socially beneficial for them to be trading on it on Manifold. There’s a real cost here; leaks motivate information originators to keep information closer to the vest next time, which hurts efficiency.
I know people value predictive accuracy, but the social value of this information leaking out a few days early seems minimal in comparison to the risks. If your best argument for insider trading is that it will make you some play money . . . then you very likely shouldn’t.
(In my profession, trading on attorney-client protected info will earn you a nice long suspension if not worse, so the very idea seems really foreign to me.)