Thanks for posting this! Do you have a take on Tarsney’s point about uncertainty in model parameters in the paper you cite in your introduction? Quoting from his conclusions (though there’s much more discussion earlier):
If we accept expectational utilitarianism, and therefore do not mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoffs, then the case for longtermism (specifically, for the persistent-difference strategy of existential risk mitigation) seems robust to the epistemic challenge we have considered (namely, epistemic persistence skepticism). While there are plausible point estimates of the relevant model parameters that favor neartermism, once we account for uncertainty, it takes only a very small credence in combinations of parameter values more favorable to longtermism for EV(L) to exceed EV(N) in our working example. [emphasis mine]
Thanks for posting this! Do you have a take on Tarsney’s point about uncertainty in model parameters in the paper you cite in your introduction? Quoting from his conclusions (though there’s much more discussion earlier):