Another possible reason to argue for a zero-discount rate is that the intrinsic value of humanity increases at a rate greater than the long-run catastrophe rate[19]. This is wrong for (at least) 2 reasons.
Your footnote is to The Precipice: To quote from The Precipice Appendix E:
by many measures the value of humanity has increased substantially over the centuries. This progress has been very uneven over short periods, but remarkably robust over the long run. We live long lives filled with cultural and material riches that would have seemed like wild fantasy to our ancestors thousands of years ago. And the scale of our civilization may also matter: the fact that there are thousands of times as many people enjoying these richer lives seems to magnify this value. If the intrinsic value of each century increases at a rate higher than r, this can substantially increase the value of protecting humanity (even if this rate of increase is not sustained forever). [Footnote here]
Regarding your first reason: You first cite that this would imply a negative-discount rate that rules in favor of future people; I’m confused why this is bad? You mention “radical conclusions” – I mean sure, there are many radical conclusions in the world, for instance I believe that factory farming is a moral atrocity being committed by almost all of current society – that’s a radical view. Being a radical view doesn’t make it wrong (although I think we should be healthily skeptical of views that seem weird). Another radical conclusion I hold is that all people around the world are morally valuable, and enslaving them would be terrible; this view would appear radical to most people at various points in history, and is not radical in most the world now.
Regarding your second reason:
while it is true that lives lived today are much better than lives lived in the past (longer, healthier, richer), and the same may apply to the future, this logic leads to some deeply immoral places. The life of a person a who will live a long, healthy, and rich life, is worth no more than the life of the poorest, sickest, person alive. While some lives may be lived better, all lives are worth the same. Longtermism should accept this applies across time too.
I would pose to you the question: Would you rather give birth to somebody who would be tortured their entire life or somebody who would be quite happy throughout their life (though they experience ups and downs)? Perhaps you are indifferent between these, but I doubt it (they both are one life being born, however, so taking the “all lives are worth the same” line literally here implies they are equally good). I think the value of a future where everybody being tortured is quite bad and is probably worse than extinction, whereas a flourishing future where people are very happy and have their needs met would be awesome!
I agree that there are some pretty unintuitive conclusions of this kind of thinking, but there are also unintuitive conclusions if you reject it! I think the value of an average life today, to the person living it, is probably higher than the value of an average life in 1700 CE, to the person living it. In the above Precipice passage, Ord discusses some reasons why this might be so.
You write:
Your footnote is to The Precipice: To quote from The Precipice Appendix E:
Regarding your first reason: You first cite that this would imply a negative-discount rate that rules in favor of future people; I’m confused why this is bad? You mention “radical conclusions” – I mean sure, there are many radical conclusions in the world, for instance I believe that factory farming is a moral atrocity being committed by almost all of current society – that’s a radical view. Being a radical view doesn’t make it wrong (although I think we should be healthily skeptical of views that seem weird). Another radical conclusion I hold is that all people around the world are morally valuable, and enslaving them would be terrible; this view would appear radical to most people at various points in history, and is not radical in most the world now.
Regarding your second reason:
I would pose to you the question: Would you rather give birth to somebody who would be tortured their entire life or somebody who would be quite happy throughout their life (though they experience ups and downs)? Perhaps you are indifferent between these, but I doubt it (they both are one life being born, however, so taking the “all lives are worth the same” line literally here implies they are equally good). I think the value of a future where everybody being tortured is quite bad and is probably worse than extinction, whereas a flourishing future where people are very happy and have their needs met would be awesome!
I agree that there are some pretty unintuitive conclusions of this kind of thinking, but there are also unintuitive conclusions if you reject it! I think the value of an average life today, to the person living it, is probably higher than the value of an average life in 1700 CE, to the person living it. In the above Precipice passage, Ord discusses some reasons why this might be so.