Might be better to be more explicit about extinction risk reduction vs existential risk reduction. If EV[survivecone] < EV[deathcone], then extinction risk reduction seems negative EV (ignoring acausal stuff), but increasing the probability of extinction would plausibly reduce existential risk and be positive EV according to your simplified model, and there may be other ways (non-extinction-related ways) to reduce s-risks that are existential while also being positive EV to pursue.
Might be better to be more explicit about extinction risk reduction vs existential risk reduction. If EV[survivecone] < EV[deathcone], then extinction risk reduction seems negative EV (ignoring acausal stuff), but increasing the probability of extinction would plausibly reduce existential risk and be positive EV according to your simplified model, and there may be other ways (non-extinction-related ways) to reduce s-risks that are existential while also being positive EV to pursue.
Yep completely agree, good catch.