I do mean theory A to specifically be a theory where he did not intentionally defraud people. I don’t think the EA + non-DAE + naive utilitarianism + intentional fraud theory is one of the three most likely, that’s why I didn’t discuss it in detail, but I’d be interested in evidence for it (if you think there is evidence for that theory in particular that is not already mentioned in my post)
I think ultimately this is just “how much do you trust Sam’s testimony about himself (e.g. how plausible is it that he thinks it’s OK to take billions of customer money). Given his willingness to be misleading or lie about other things (e.g. whether or not Alameda received special treatment, the frugal image etc), this might be some reason to discount his own testimony.
I also think generally with large scale financial fraud you should expect that it is much easier to have nonzero idea of the fraud occurring than have zero knowledge of the fraud occurring; it seems not super relevant to me whether this is something SBF “let happen” or defrauding as an action was what SBF was actively pursuing, though you may disagree.
I do mean theory A to specifically be a theory where he did not intentionally defraud people. I don’t think the EA + non-DAE + naive utilitarianism + intentional fraud theory is one of the three most likely, that’s why I didn’t discuss it in detail, but I’d be interested in evidence for it (if you think there is evidence for that theory in particular that is not already mentioned in my post)
I think ultimately this is just “how much do you trust Sam’s testimony about himself (e.g. how plausible is it that he thinks it’s OK to take billions of customer money). Given his willingness to be misleading or lie about other things (e.g. whether or not Alameda received special treatment, the frugal image etc), this might be some reason to discount his own testimony.
I also think generally with large scale financial fraud you should expect that it is much easier to have nonzero idea of the fraud occurring than have zero knowledge of the fraud occurring; it seems not super relevant to me whether this is something SBF “let happen” or defrauding as an action was what SBF was actively pursuing, though you may disagree.