Zachary Brown🔸 comments on Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk) - Reflective altruism

[Zachary Brown🔸]

I really appreciated this post and it’s sequel (and await the third in the sequence)! The “second mistake” was totally new to me, and I hadn’t grasped the significance of the “first mistake”. The post did persuade me that the case for existential risk reduction is less robust than I had previously thought.

One tiny thing. I think this should read “from 20% to 10% risk”:

More rarely, we talk about absolute reductions, which subtract an absolute amount from the current level of risk. It is in this sense that a 10% reduction in risk takes us from 80% to 70% risk, from 20% to 18% risk, or from 10% to 0% risk. (Formally, relative risk reduction by f takes us from risk r to risk r – f).

[David Thorstad]

Whoops, thanks!