(When I write “explicit threat(s)” below, I’m mostly thinking demands from outsiders to cancel the event and risks of EA Munich or its organizers being cancelled or explicit threats from outsiders to cancel EA Munich without necessarily following through.)
Abstractly, sure, the game theory is similar, since cancelling is also a cost, but I think the actual payoffs/costs can be very different, as you may be exposing yourself to more risk, and being explicitly threatened at all can incur additional (net) costs beyond the cost of cancellation. Also, if we were talking about not planning the event in the first place (that’s another way to avoid the action, although that’s not what happened here), it’ll go unnoticed, so you wouldn’t be known as someone who submits to threats to make yourself a target for more. A group won’t likely be known for not inviting certain controversial speakers in the first place. I think in this case, we can say the game theory is pretty different due to asymmetric information.
Cancelling early can also reduce the perception of submission to others who would make threats compared to cancelling after explicit threats, since explicit threats bring attention with them.
As I wrote, there are costs that come from being threatened that are additional to just (the costs of) cancelling the event that you can avoid if you’re never explicitly threatened in the first place. It’s easier to avoid negative perceptions (like being known as “the group that invited Peter Singer”, as Julia mentioned) if you didn’t plan the event in the first place or cancelled early before any threat was made (and even if no explicit threat was made at all). Once a threat is actually made, negative perceptions are more likely to result even if you submit, since threats bring negative perceptions with them. Cancelling after being threatened might seem like giving an apology after being caught, so might not appear genuine or the cancellation will just be less memorable than the threats and what lead to them (the association with particular figures).
(When I write “explicit threat(s)” below, I’m mostly thinking demands from outsiders to cancel the event and risks of EA Munich or its organizers being cancelled or explicit threats from outsiders to cancel EA Munich without necessarily following through.)
Abstractly, sure, the game theory is similar, since cancelling is also a cost, but I think the actual payoffs/costs can be very different, as you may be exposing yourself to more risk, and being explicitly threatened at all can incur additional (net) costs beyond the cost of cancellation. Also, if we were talking about not planning the event in the first place (that’s another way to avoid the action, although that’s not what happened here), it’ll go unnoticed, so you wouldn’t be known as someone who submits to threats to make yourself a target for more. A group won’t likely be known for not inviting certain controversial speakers in the first place. I think in this case, we can say the game theory is pretty different due to asymmetric information.
Cancelling early can also reduce the perception of submission to others who would make threats compared to cancelling after explicit threats, since explicit threats bring attention with them.
As I wrote, there are costs that come from being threatened that are additional to just (the costs of) cancelling the event that you can avoid if you’re never explicitly threatened in the first place. It’s easier to avoid negative perceptions (like being known as “the group that invited Peter Singer”, as Julia mentioned) if you didn’t plan the event in the first place or cancelled early before any threat was made (and even if no explicit threat was made at all). Once a threat is actually made, negative perceptions are more likely to result even if you submit, since threats bring negative perceptions with them. Cancelling after being threatened might seem like giving an apology after being caught, so might not appear genuine or the cancellation will just be less memorable than the threats and what lead to them (the association with particular figures).