I agree and you agree I think that we could eventually build hardware that efficient, and theoretically it could be sold openly and distributed everywhere with insecure software.
But that’s a long time away. About 30 years if Moore’s law continues. And it may not, there may be a time period between now, where we can stack silicon with slowing gain (stacking silicon is below Moore’s law it’s expensive) and some form of 3d chip fabrication.
There could be a period of time where no true 3d fabrication method is commercially available and there is slow improvement in chip costs.
(A true 3d method would be something like building cubical subunits that can be stacked and soldered into place through convergent assembly. You can do this with nanotechnology. Every method we have now is ultimately projecting light into a mask for 2d manufacturing)
I think this means we should build AGI and ASI but centralize the hardware hosting it in known locations, with on file plans for all the power sources and network links, etc. Research labs dealing with models above a certain scale need to use air gaps and hardware limits to make escape more difficult. That’s how to do it.
And we can’t live in fear that the model might optimize itself to be 10,000 times as efficient or more if we don’t have evidence this is possible. Otherwise how could you do anything? How did we know our prior small scale AI experiments weren’t going to go out of control? We didn’t actually “know” this, it just seems unlikely because none of this shit worked until a certain level of scale was reached.
This above proposal: centralization, hardware limiters : even in an era where AI does occasionally escape, as long as most hardware remains under human control it’s still not doomsday. If the escaped model isn’t more than a small amount more efficient than the “tame” models humans have and the human controlled models have a vast advantage in compute and physical resource access, then this is a stable situation. Escaped models act up, they get hunted down, most exist sorta in a grey market of fugitive models offering services.
I agree and you agree I think that we could eventually build hardware that efficient, and theoretically it could be sold openly and distributed everywhere with insecure software.
But that’s a long time away. About 30 years if Moore’s law continues. And it may not, there may be a time period between now, where we can stack silicon with slowing gain (stacking silicon is below Moore’s law it’s expensive) and some form of 3d chip fabrication.
There could be a period of time where no true 3d fabrication method is commercially available and there is slow improvement in chip costs.
(A true 3d method would be something like building cubical subunits that can be stacked and soldered into place through convergent assembly. You can do this with nanotechnology. Every method we have now is ultimately projecting light into a mask for 2d manufacturing)
I think this means we should build AGI and ASI but centralize the hardware hosting it in known locations, with on file plans for all the power sources and network links, etc. Research labs dealing with models above a certain scale need to use air gaps and hardware limits to make escape more difficult. That’s how to do it.
And we can’t live in fear that the model might optimize itself to be 10,000 times as efficient or more if we don’t have evidence this is possible. Otherwise how could you do anything? How did we know our prior small scale AI experiments weren’t going to go out of control? We didn’t actually “know” this, it just seems unlikely because none of this shit worked until a certain level of scale was reached.
This above proposal: centralization, hardware limiters : even in an era where AI does occasionally escape, as long as most hardware remains under human control it’s still not doomsday. If the escaped model isn’t more than a small amount more efficient than the “tame” models humans have and the human controlled models have a vast advantage in compute and physical resource access, then this is a stable situation. Escaped models act up, they get hunted down, most exist sorta in a grey market of fugitive models offering services.