Is this just showing that the predictions were inaccurate before updating?
I think it’s saying that predictions over the lifetime of the market are less accurate for questions where early forecasters disagreed a lot with later forecasters, compared to questions where early forecasters mostly agreed with later forecasters. Which sounds unsurprising.
I think that can be part of it. Just a note, I calculated the belief movement only for the 2nd half of the question lifetime to minimise the effect of inaccurate earlier predictions.
Another plausible explanation to me is that questions with greater updating are harder.
Is this just showing that the predictions were inaccurate before updating?
I think it’s saying that predictions over the lifetime of the market are less accurate for questions where early forecasters disagreed a lot with later forecasters, compared to questions where early forecasters mostly agreed with later forecasters. Which sounds unsurprising.
Hi Dan,
I think that can be part of it. Just a note, I calculated the belief movement only for the 2nd half of the question lifetime to minimise the effect of inaccurate earlier predictions.
Another plausible explanation to me is that questions with greater updating are harder.