since when did arguments exist only if we can be absolutely certain about something?
You don’t have to be certain, just substantiated.
there is a bubble in the EA community concerning the far-future prioritization which may be overshadowing and repulsive towards some who are interested in other topics
It may be, or it may not be. Even if so, it’s not healthy to split groups every time people dislike the majority point of view. “It’s a bubble and people are biased and I find it repulsive” is practically indistinguishable from “I disagree with them and I can’t convince them”.
we are talking here about a very specific context where a number of biases are already entrenched and people tend to be put off by that
Again, this is unsupported. What biases? What’s the evidence? Who is put off? Etc.
my best guess is that you are behaving like this because you are hiding behind your anonymous identity
my IRL identity is linked via the little icon by my username. I don’t know what’s rude here. I’m saying that you need to engage with on a topic before commenting on the viability of engaging on it. Yet this basic point is being met with appeals to logical fallacies, blank denial of the validity of my argument, insistence upon the mere possibility and plausible deniability of your position. These tactics are irritating and lead to nowhere, so all I can do is restate my points in a slightly different manner and hope that you pick up the general idea. You’re perceiving that as “rude” because it’s terse, but I have no idea what else I can say.
OK, you aren’t anonymous, so that’s even more surprising. I gave you earlier examples of your rude responses, but doesn’t matter, I’m fine going on.
My impression of bias is based by my experience on this forum and observations in view of posts critical of far-future causes. I don’t have any systematic study on this topic, so I can’t provide you with evidence. It is just my impression, based on my personal experience. But unfortunately, no empirical study on this topic, concerning this forum, exists, so the best we currently have are personal experiences. My experience is based on observations of the presence of larger-than-average downvoting without commenting when criticism on these issues is voiced. Of course, I may be biased and this may be my blind spot.
You started questioning my comments on this topic by stating that I haven’t engaged in any near-future discussions so far. And I am replying that i don’t need to have done so in order to have an argument concerning the type of venue that would profit from discussions on this topic. I don’t even see how I could change my mind on this topic (the good practice when disagreeing) because I don’t see why one would engage in a discussion in order to have an opinion on the discussion. Hope that’s clear by now :)
My experience is based on observations of the presence of larger-than-average downvoting without commenting when criticism on these issues is voiced.
I’m not referring to that, I’m questioning whether talking about near-term stuff needs to be anywhere else. This whole thing is not about “where can we argue about cause prioritization and the flaws in Open Phil,” it is about “where can we argue about bed nets vs cash distribution”. Those are two different things, and just because a forum is bad for one doesn’t imply that it’s bad for the other. You have been conflating these things in this entire conversation.
And I am replying that i don’t need to have done so in order to have an argument concerning the type of venue that would profit from discussions on this topic. I don’t even see how I could change my mind on this topic (the good practice when disagreeing) because I don’t see why one would engage in a discussion in order to have an opinion on the discussion
The basic premise here, that you should have experience with conversations before opining about the viability of having such a conversation, is not easy to communicate with someone who defers to pure skepticism about it. I leave that to the reader to see why it’s a problem that you’re inserting yourself as an authority while lacking demonstrable evidence and expertise.
But they’ll be unsubstantiated.
You don’t have to be certain, just substantiated.
It may be, or it may not be. Even if so, it’s not healthy to split groups every time people dislike the majority point of view. “It’s a bubble and people are biased and I find it repulsive” is practically indistinguishable from “I disagree with them and I can’t convince them”.
Again, this is unsupported. What biases? What’s the evidence? Who is put off? Etc.
my IRL identity is linked via the little icon by my username. I don’t know what’s rude here. I’m saying that you need to engage with on a topic before commenting on the viability of engaging on it. Yet this basic point is being met with appeals to logical fallacies, blank denial of the validity of my argument, insistence upon the mere possibility and plausible deniability of your position. These tactics are irritating and lead to nowhere, so all I can do is restate my points in a slightly different manner and hope that you pick up the general idea. You’re perceiving that as “rude” because it’s terse, but I have no idea what else I can say.
OK, you aren’t anonymous, so that’s even more surprising. I gave you earlier examples of your rude responses, but doesn’t matter, I’m fine going on.
My impression of bias is based by my experience on this forum and observations in view of posts critical of far-future causes. I don’t have any systematic study on this topic, so I can’t provide you with evidence. It is just my impression, based on my personal experience. But unfortunately, no empirical study on this topic, concerning this forum, exists, so the best we currently have are personal experiences. My experience is based on observations of the presence of larger-than-average downvoting without commenting when criticism on these issues is voiced. Of course, I may be biased and this may be my blind spot.
You started questioning my comments on this topic by stating that I haven’t engaged in any near-future discussions so far. And I am replying that i don’t need to have done so in order to have an argument concerning the type of venue that would profit from discussions on this topic. I don’t even see how I could change my mind on this topic (the good practice when disagreeing) because I don’t see why one would engage in a discussion in order to have an opinion on the discussion. Hope that’s clear by now :)
I’m not referring to that, I’m questioning whether talking about near-term stuff needs to be anywhere else. This whole thing is not about “where can we argue about cause prioritization and the flaws in Open Phil,” it is about “where can we argue about bed nets vs cash distribution”. Those are two different things, and just because a forum is bad for one doesn’t imply that it’s bad for the other. You have been conflating these things in this entire conversation.
The basic premise here, that you should have experience with conversations before opining about the viability of having such a conversation, is not easy to communicate with someone who defers to pure skepticism about it. I leave that to the reader to see why it’s a problem that you’re inserting yourself as an authority while lacking demonstrable evidence and expertise.