As the program is about forecasting, what is your stance on the broader field of foresight & futures studies? Why is forecasting more promising than some other approaches to foresight?
We are open to considering projects in “forecasting-adjacent” areas, and projects that combine forecasting with ideas from related fields are certainly well within the scope of the program.
As for projects that would exclusively rely on other approaches: My worry is that non-probabilistic foresight techniques typically don’t have more to show in terms of evidence for their effectiveness, while being more ad hoc from a theoretical perspective.
We are open to considering projects in “forecasting-adjacent” areas, and projects that combine forecasting with ideas from related fields are certainly well within the scope of the program.
As for projects that would exclusively rely on other approaches: My worry is that non-probabilistic foresight techniques typically don’t have more to show in terms of evidence for their effectiveness, while being more ad hoc from a theoretical perspective.