At some point, I kinda just want to say âok, where has the forecasting money gone?â, and it seems to have overwhelmingly gone to community forecasting sites like Manifold and Metaculus. I donât see anything like âpaying 3 teams of 3 forecasters to compete against each other on some AI timelines questionsâ
Just confirming that informing our own decisions was part of the motivation for past grants, and I expect it to play an important role for our forecasting grants in the future.
[The forecasting money] seems to have overwhelmingly gone to community forecasting sites like Manifold and Metaculus. I donât see anything like âpaying 3 teams of 3 forecasters to compete against each other on some AI timelines questionsâ.
Thatâs directionally true, but I think âoverwhelminglyâ isnât right.
We did not fund Manifold.
One of our largest forecasting grants went to FRI, which is not a platform.
While itâs fair to say that Metaculus is mostly a platform, it also runs externally-funded tournaments, and has a pro forecaster service.
There were a few grants to more narrowly defined projects. Most of these are currently not assgined to forecasting as a cause area, but you can find them here (searching for âforecastâ in our grants database), see especially those before August 2021. [Update: we have updated the labels, and these grants are now listed here ]. I expect that weâll make more of these types of grants now that forecasting is a designated area with more capacity.
At some point, I kinda just want to say âok, where has the forecasting money gone?â, and it seems to have overwhelmingly gone to community forecasting sites like Manifold and Metaculus. I donât see anything like âpaying 3 teams of 3 forecasters to compete against each other on some AI timelines questionsâ
Just confirming that informing our own decisions was part of the motivation for past grants, and I expect it to play an important role for our forecasting grants in the future.
Thatâs directionally true, but I think âoverwhelminglyâ isnât right.
We did not fund Manifold.
One of our largest forecasting grants went to FRI, which is not a platform.
While itâs fair to say that Metaculus is mostly a platform, it also runs externally-funded tournaments, and has a pro forecaster service.
There were a few grants to more narrowly defined projects.
Most of these are currently not assgined to forecasting as a cause area, but you can find themhere(searching for âforecastâ in our grants database), see especially those before August 2021.[Update: we have updated the labels, and these grants are now listed here ].I expect that weâll make more of these types of grants now that forecasting is a designated area with more capacity.