However, I also expect them to be a large waste of resources (especially forecasting time), compared to idealized setups
Incidentally, I was just working on this post about efficiency of forecast markets vs consultancies.
I share your intuition that liquid/large scale markets may solve some of the inefficiency problems—forecasters would have a much better idea about what kinds of questions they can get paid for, specialise in particular kinds of questions, work in teams that can together answer broader ranges of questions and so forth. However, there’s a kind of chicken and egg problem that unless people can be confident of getting cost-effective answers to crucial questions, they’re probably not going to invest a huge amount into forecasting markets.
Incidentally, I was just working on this post about efficiency of forecast markets vs consultancies.
I share your intuition that liquid/large scale markets may solve some of the inefficiency problems—forecasters would have a much better idea about what kinds of questions they can get paid for, specialise in particular kinds of questions, work in teams that can together answer broader ranges of questions and so forth. However, there’s a kind of chicken and egg problem that unless people can be confident of getting cost-effective answers to crucial questions, they’re probably not going to invest a huge amount into forecasting markets.