MIRI and the Future of Humanity Institute each created models for calculating the probability that a new researcher joining MIRI will avert existential catastrophe. MIRI’s model puts it at between 0.14 and 0.17, while the FHI estimates between 0.15 and 0.18.
The wording here makes it seem like MIRI/FHI created the model, but the link in the footnote indicates that the model was created by the Oxford Prioritisation Project. I looked at their blog post for the MIRI model but it looks like MIRI wasn’t involved in creating the model (although the post author seems to have sent it to MIRI before publishing the post). I wonder if I’m missing something though, or misinterpreting what you wrote.
Thanks for this! It’s been a long time since I wrote this so I don’t remember why I thought it was from MIRI/FHI. I think it’s because the guesstimate model has two sub-models, one titled “the MIRI method” and one titled “The community method (developed by Owen CB and Daniel Dewey” who were at the time associated with FHI I believe. So I must have figured the first model came from MIRI and the second model came from FHI.
Ok I see, thanks for the clarification! I didn’t notice the use of the phrase “the MIRI method”, which does sound like an odd way to phrase it (if MIRI was in fact not involved in coming up with the model).
The wording here makes it seem like MIRI/FHI created the model, but the link in the footnote indicates that the model was created by the Oxford Prioritisation Project. I looked at their blog post for the MIRI model but it looks like MIRI wasn’t involved in creating the model (although the post author seems to have sent it to MIRI before publishing the post). I wonder if I’m missing something though, or misinterpreting what you wrote.
Thanks for this! It’s been a long time since I wrote this so I don’t remember why I thought it was from MIRI/FHI. I think it’s because the guesstimate model has two sub-models, one titled “the MIRI method” and one titled “The community method (developed by Owen CB and Daniel Dewey” who were at the time associated with FHI I believe. So I must have figured the first model came from MIRI and the second model came from FHI.
I’ll correct the error.
Ok I see, thanks for the clarification! I didn’t notice the use of the phrase “the MIRI method”, which does sound like an odd way to phrase it (if MIRI was in fact not involved in coming up with the model).