I share the expressed concern but respectfully disagree with the major suggestion. First, «overrating» is a perception problem, not purely an industry problem. People are free to believe in things, and sometimes they overrate them. The forecasting community did not force anyone to fund platforms over applied work. That was a series of decisions made by funders who could have chosen differently. Blaming the field for how it was funded seems like misplaced accountability. Second, I am genuinely troubled by the premise of «tangible result delivery» as the primary criterion. In Belarus, the local dictator Lukashenko reduced fundamental research to a single standard: «defend a dissertation, put something on the table.» A literal table — something you could eat, drink, or watch. This same person later advised the population to treat COVID-19 with vodka and hockey. I raise this not as a rhetorical flourish but as a real example of where the demand for immediate, demonstrable utility leads. Expertise that cannot show a product on the table gets defunded. What replaces it is not better expertise, but motivational speakers and empty calories dressed as insight. Third, and most importantly, the kind of non-ideological, procedural, deliberate thinking about existential challenges that forecasting at its best represents needs to be funded precisely because it is not self-funding. It will not produce a table. It will not generate clicks or headlines. It will not confirm anyone’s priors. That is exactly why it needs institutional support — and why defunding it in favor of things with tangible short-term outputs is a mistake we will recognize too late.
I share the expressed concern but respectfully disagree with the major suggestion.
First, «overrating» is a perception problem, not purely an industry problem. People are free to believe in things, and sometimes they overrate them. The forecasting community did not force anyone to fund platforms over applied work. That was a series of decisions made by funders who could have chosen differently. Blaming the field for how it was funded seems like misplaced accountability.
Second, I am genuinely troubled by the premise of «tangible result delivery» as the primary criterion. In Belarus, the local dictator Lukashenko reduced fundamental research to a single standard: «defend a dissertation, put something on the table.» A literal table — something you could eat, drink, or watch. This same person later advised the population to treat COVID-19 with vodka and hockey. I raise this not as a rhetorical flourish but as a real example of where the demand for immediate, demonstrable utility leads. Expertise that cannot show a product on the table gets defunded. What replaces it is not better expertise, but motivational speakers and empty calories dressed as insight.
Third, and most importantly, the kind of non-ideological, procedural, deliberate thinking about existential challenges that forecasting at its best represents needs to be funded precisely because it is not self-funding. It will not produce a table. It will not generate clicks or headlines. It will not confirm anyone’s priors. That is exactly why it needs institutional support — and why defunding it in favor of things with tangible short-term outputs is a mistake we will recognize too late.