I think “your mileage may vary” quite a lot in this. In the context of the social science prediction market, you tend to be asking people who have expertise and familiarity with the methods and context, and sometimes more experienced than the people posting the questions.
On the other hand, if you post detailed technical questions on a mainstream prediction market or even on Metaculus, I expect / have the sense that you don’t get much of this’ wisdom of the crowds dividend’.
I think “your mileage may vary” quite a lot in this. In the context of the social science prediction market, you tend to be asking people who have expertise and familiarity with the methods and context, and sometimes more experienced than the people posting the questions.
On the other hand, if you post detailed technical questions on a mainstream prediction market or even on Metaculus, I expect / have the sense that you don’t get much of this’ wisdom of the crowds dividend’.