As of March 30, the Forecasting Fund is no longer active, though we continue to make key forecasting grants through other funds, such as Navigating Transformative AI. This page will be maintained until the end of 2026 as a record of the fund’s work.
I think this is more likely to make forecasting grants useful. They will presumably be assessed with the criteria used to evaluate the non-forecasting grants of the respective fund.
@NunoSempere wrote about the end of CG’s Forecasting Fund in the last edition of the Forecasting Newsletter. Only paid subscribers can check the relevant section.
I had this post in my drafts for 3 years. I was happy to see the Forecasting Fund close down, I don’t expect we will see less than $5M of forecasting grants done by CG in 2026 or 2027 though.
I don’t have an opinion on if I would rather the forecasting grants be made within or separate from the forecasting fund so long as the grants are still being made. I see pros and cons.
I think Holly’s post you linked is awesome and is in my Mount Rushmore of posts (top 4 all time).
Hi Marcus. Thanks for the post. I broadly agree.
Coefficient Giving’s (CG’s) Forecasting Fund has recently been closed.
I think this is more likely to make forecasting grants useful. They will presumably be assessed with the criteria used to evaluate the non-forecasting grants of the respective fund.
@NunoSempere wrote about the end of CG’s Forecasting Fund in the last edition of the Forecasting Newsletter. Only paid subscribers can check the relevant section.
Right.
I’m not a paid sub to Nuno so I can’t see.
I had this post in my drafts for 3 years. I was happy to see the Forecasting Fund close down, I don’t expect we will see less than $5M of forecasting grants done by CG in 2026 or 2027 though.
I don’t have an opinion on if I would rather the forecasting grants be made within or separate from the forecasting fund so long as the grants are still being made. I see pros and cons.
I think Holly’s post you linked is awesome and is in my Mount Rushmore of posts (top 4 all time).
What are the other 3 on your Mount Rushmore?
Me neither.
CG’s Forecasting Fund granted 15.9 M$ in 2025.