Prediction markets seem to be a great business (mostly gambling with all the problems associated with it) so “funding” in the sense of investing in them could be sensible while “funding” in the donation sense not. (And then later donation to AMF or similar).
In general, I’m hesitant to donate to stuff that’s plausibly just a really good business in its own right.
Fair, but cultivating tools used for prediction markets is only a part of this forecasting research funding. And the sorts of questions that EAs want to get predictions over (e.g., number of chickens and cages per year with versus without the production of cell cultured meat) are unlikely to be part of a popular mainstream prediction market.
Yes, funding eg “research that also produces forecasts” seems in a completely different category to me than eg prediction markets or platform building.
I feel the original article perhaps conflates different types of “forecast” funding a bit too much, although I tend to agree with its overall sentiment.
Prediction markets seem to be a great business (mostly gambling with all the problems associated with it) so “funding” in the sense of investing in them could be sensible while “funding” in the donation sense not. (And then later donation to AMF or similar).
In general, I’m hesitant to donate to stuff that’s plausibly just a really good business in its own right.
Fair, but cultivating tools used for prediction markets is only a part of this forecasting research funding. And the sorts of questions that EAs want to get predictions over (e.g., number of chickens and cages per year with versus without the production of cell cultured meat) are unlikely to be part of a popular mainstream prediction market.
Yes, funding eg “research that also produces forecasts” seems in a completely different category to me than eg prediction markets or platform building.
I feel the original article perhaps conflates different types of “forecast” funding a bit too much, although I tend to agree with its overall sentiment.