I think it’s a bit of a cop out to suggest that the money was spent poorly and therefore it’s not fair to judge forecasting on the merits. Not sure if this is what you are saying though.
I’m not sure I agree. Blockchains were funded. Lots of academic research is funded by governments, etc.
By this logic, why aren’t we paying people in the top, say 100 on Polymarket on non-sports questions and saying “hey guys, we want to pay you to make some forecasts for us”.
I’m not sure how I feel about these. I will say, I am not nearly as big a fan of AI 2027 as others seem to be, and I think it is going to severely discredit AI risks because we have been crying wolf when frankly, most of the scary stuff they say doesn’t happen. I am very happy to make some bets with Daniel or Eli on some of these (and give them extra time).
Useless is a stretch and I didn’t intend to claim it originally. Sorry if I implied it. I merely think they are overrated, hence the title.
As promised, my reply (a couple days late).
I think it’s a bit of a cop out to suggest that the money was spent poorly and therefore it’s not fair to judge forecasting on the merits. Not sure if this is what you are saying though.
I’m not sure I agree. Blockchains were funded. Lots of academic research is funded by governments, etc.
By this logic, why aren’t we paying people in the top, say 100 on Polymarket on non-sports questions and saying “hey guys, we want to pay you to make some forecasts for us”.
I’m not sure how I feel about these. I will say, I am not nearly as big a fan of AI 2027 as others seem to be, and I think it is going to severely discredit AI risks because we have been crying wolf when frankly, most of the scary stuff they say doesn’t happen. I am very happy to make some bets with Daniel or Eli on some of these (and give them extra time).
Useless is a stretch and I didn’t intend to claim it originally. Sorry if I implied it. I merely think they are overrated, hence the title.