But I am also a bit skeptical that creating lots of unsubsidized markets would generate much positive information. My evidence/experience suggests that most people who are involved in these matters, don’t want to do a substantial amount of research into this sort of very nuanced, detailed questions that are the highest value, so the small amount of predictions you get might just be noise.
I started something in this direction here.
But I am also a bit skeptical that creating lots of unsubsidized markets would generate much positive information. My evidence/experience suggests that most people who are involved in these matters, don’t want to do a substantial amount of research into this sort of very nuanced, detailed questions that are the highest value, so the small amount of predictions you get might just be noise.