My belief/experience suggests that the sorts of prediction markets that are profitable and entertaining are not likely to be the ones that are going to be particularly informative to globally impactful/EA funding and policy choices.
(But at the same time, I guess it’s the case that some of the EA/rationalist support for prediction platforms has ended up leading to these entertaining but not socially valuable things.)
My belief/experience suggests that the sorts of prediction markets that are profitable and entertaining are not likely to be the ones that are going to be particularly informative to globally impactful/EA funding and policy choices.
(But at the same time, I guess it’s the case that some of the EA/rationalist support for prediction platforms has ended up leading to these entertaining but not socially valuable things.)