I think one should distinguish between several things here:
Prediction markets that make a lot of $ and don’t really need more because they do just fine with the profit motive
People spending a lot of time on prediction markets to prove they are a good forecaster
Infrastructure integrated into specific use cases, such as: when a funder is interested in a question so much that they will pay for forecasts, to inform and improve their other funding, or when for structural reasons the institution that has reason to benefit from the forecasts cannot fund them itself (such as some other decision-makers who do not have the mandate to support forecasting and are restricted from spending money to support it but would use forecasts in their work flow), or basic research with positive externalities.
This post really belabours the first and second bullet point, perhaps because that is where a lot of money has gone to, but there can be a lot of value in the third.
Yea, this is fair. I am much more sympathetic to non-PM forecasting than I am PM/judgemental forecasting. The ideas in this post were really developed in 2023/2024 when I saw EAs spending a ton of time on Manifold/Metaculus, investing at high valuations, generally revering prediction markets for decision making, etc. whereas what I was seeing was completely different.
This post really belabours the first and second bullet point, perhaps because that is where a lot of money has gone to, but there can be a lot of value in the third.
I really believe in following the money. I think if we spend $100M on forecasting and $90M of it went to prediction market-style forecasting, I think it’s fair to basically lump it all together. It’d be one thing if PMs were a small experiment within broad forecasting, but its been the main thing.
That’s fair! It’s just also reasonable for me or other non-PM forecasting folks to be concerned about people making the wrong inference. I’m currently set to pay for the SSPP and other forecasting work out of my own personal research budget next year, having not found other funding yet. I had a full proposal out to cG when they shuttered the stream, though there are some other possibilities I’m exploring.
I think one should distinguish between several things here:
Prediction markets that make a lot of $ and don’t really need more because they do just fine with the profit motive
People spending a lot of time on prediction markets to prove they are a good forecaster
Infrastructure integrated into specific use cases, such as: when a funder is interested in a question so much that they will pay for forecasts, to inform and improve their other funding, or when for structural reasons the institution that has reason to benefit from the forecasts cannot fund them itself (such as some other decision-makers who do not have the mandate to support forecasting and are restricted from spending money to support it but would use forecasts in their work flow), or basic research with positive externalities.
This post really belabours the first and second bullet point, perhaps because that is where a lot of money has gone to, but there can be a lot of value in the third.
Yea, this is fair. I am much more sympathetic to non-PM forecasting than I am PM/judgemental forecasting. The ideas in this post were really developed in 2023/2024 when I saw EAs spending a ton of time on Manifold/Metaculus, investing at high valuations, generally revering prediction markets for decision making, etc. whereas what I was seeing was completely different.
I really believe in following the money. I think if we spend $100M on forecasting and $90M of it went to prediction market-style forecasting, I think it’s fair to basically lump it all together. It’d be one thing if PMs were a small experiment within broad forecasting, but its been the main thing.
That’s fair! It’s just also reasonable for me or other non-PM forecasting folks to be concerned about people making the wrong inference. I’m currently set to pay for the SSPP and other forecasting work out of my own personal research budget next year, having not found other funding yet. I had a full proposal out to cG when they shuttered the stream, though there are some other possibilities I’m exploring.