Assumption Based Planning – having a written version of an organization’s plans and then identify load-bearing assumptions and assessing the vulnerability of the plan to each assumption.
Exploratory Modeling – rather than trying to model all available data to predict the most likely outcome these models map out a wide range of assumptions and show how different assumptions lead to different consequences
Scenario planning [2]– identifying the critical uncertainties, developing a set of internally consistent descriptions of future events based on each uncertainty, then developing plans that are robust [3] to all options.
Can you clarify how these tools are distinct? My (ignorant) first impression is that they just boil down to “use critical thinking”.
Can you clarify how these tools are distinct? My (ignorant) first impression is that they just boil down to “use critical thinking”.