Strong downvote for the use of the word “recent” to refer to a tournament run in 2022. This data is outdated and considerably misleading. The strong downvote can be retracted once the author makes it clear when the tournament was run.
For more recent data on expert opinion on extinction risk from AI, see AI Impacts’ paper. This places extinction (or severe disempowerment) risk from AI at 16.2%
Otherwise an interesting analysis of why forecasters differed.
Strong downvote for the use of the word “recent” to refer to a tournament run in 2022. This data is outdated and considerably misleading. The strong downvote can be retracted once the author makes it clear when the tournament was run.
For more recent data on expert opinion on extinction risk from AI, see AI Impacts’ paper. This places extinction (or severe disempowerment) risk from AI at 16.2%
Otherwise an interesting analysis of why forecasters differed.