This analysis accurately frames my starting point in working on Dozy. It convinced me to commit full-time to the project on the merits of its potential impact. Some of the awareness the post generated led to me raising a small pre-seed round from EAs, which has been invaluable. The problem size and treatment claims have been largely substantiated by studies that came out since, but I underestimated the challenges of getting users through the complete treatment program. Also, there are a few direct-to-consumer CBT-i options coming out as of now, so the counterfactual impact is more limited than I initially suggested.
That said, I still think startups / new projects represent one of the best ways to rapidly explore solutions in problem spaces like this.
Re: followup work, I’d love to see more problem analyses—especially in the mental health space—as it provides inspiration and launch support for new projects. Large-scale interventions in sleep health could be incredibly worthwhile if we can find them—insomnia continues to get more prevalent, along with other mental health related suffering. I don’t know how to reverse this trend and am looking for ideas. :)
This analysis accurately frames my starting point in working on Dozy. It convinced me to commit full-time to the project on the merits of its potential impact. Some of the awareness the post generated led to me raising a small pre-seed round from EAs, which has been invaluable. The problem size and treatment claims have been largely substantiated by studies that came out since, but I underestimated the challenges of getting users through the complete treatment program. Also, there are a few direct-to-consumer CBT-i options coming out as of now, so the counterfactual impact is more limited than I initially suggested.
That said, I still think startups / new projects represent one of the best ways to rapidly explore solutions in problem spaces like this.
Re: followup work, I’d love to see more problem analyses—especially in the mental health space—as it provides inspiration and launch support for new projects. Large-scale interventions in sleep health could be incredibly worthwhile if we can find them—insomnia continues to get more prevalent, along with other mental health related suffering. I don’t know how to reverse this trend and am looking for ideas. :)