Skimming the report, but especially pp. 30-31, I’d probably adjust their estimates significantly downward as relying on informed speculation about future events, and probably on unclear assumptions about counterfactual funding and grantee/investee growth. I find such projections optimistic until proven otherwise.
That being said, I think it’s a good idea to have a variety of effective options for prospective donors to capture as large a slice of the philantrophic pie as feasible. If someone doesn’t find saving the lives of children under age 5 -- the means by which GiveWell’s top charities produce the bulk of their assessed value—compelling enough to attract the bulk of their donations, I still would like their money for another effective intervention even assuming that the alternative doesn’t score quite as well as GiveWell’s best.
Skimming the report, but especially pp. 30-31, I’d probably adjust their estimates significantly downward as relying on informed speculation about future events, and probably on unclear assumptions about counterfactual funding and grantee/investee growth. I find such projections optimistic until proven otherwise.
That being said, I think it’s a good idea to have a variety of effective options for prospective donors to capture as large a slice of the philantrophic pie as feasible. If someone doesn’t find saving the lives of children under age 5 -- the means by which GiveWell’s top charities produce the bulk of their assessed value—compelling enough to attract the bulk of their donations, I still would like their money for another effective intervention even assuming that the alternative doesn’t score quite as well as GiveWell’s best.