Right, so you would want to show that 30-40% of interventions with similar literatures pan out.
I think we have a disagreement about what the appropriate reference class here is.
The reference class I’m using is something like “results which are supported by 2-3 small-n studies with large effect sizes.”
I’d expect roughly 30-40% of such results to hold up after confirmatory research.
Somewhat related: 62% of results assessed by Camerer et al. 2018 replicated.
It’s a bit complicated to think about replication re: psychedelics because the intervention is showing promise as a treatment for multiple indications (there are a couple studies showing large effect sizes for depression, a couple studies showing large effect sizes for anxiety, a couple studies showing large effect sizes for addictive disorders).
Could you say a little more about what reference class you’re using here?
I think we have a disagreement about what the appropriate reference class here is.
The reference class I’m using is something like “results which are supported by 2-3 small-n studies with large effect sizes.”
I’d expect roughly 30-40% of such results to hold up after confirmatory research.
Somewhat related: 62% of results assessed by Camerer et al. 2018 replicated.
It’s a bit complicated to think about replication re: psychedelics because the intervention is showing promise as a treatment for multiple indications (there are a couple studies showing large effect sizes for depression, a couple studies showing large effect sizes for anxiety, a couple studies showing large effect sizes for addictive disorders).
Could you say a little more about what reference class you’re using here?