If I understand right, the claim you’re making here is that if I give £10 to a Givewell charity, I cause Dustin Muskovitz to give £10 less to that Givewell charity, and do something else with it instead. What else does he do with it?
Donate it to a different global health charity—Ok, doesn’t seem like too big a deal, my counterfactual impact is still to move money to a highly effective global health charity
Spend it on himself—Seems unlikely..?
Donate it to a different cause area, e.g. AI safety—so while I think I have supported global health, the counterfactual impact is actually to move more money to AI safety.
The second two possibilities seem surprising and important if true, and I’d be interested to hear more justification for this! Is there some evidence that this is really what happens?
If I understand right, the claim you’re making here is that if I give £10 to a Givewell charity, I cause Dustin Muskovitz to give £10 less to that Givewell charity, and do something else with it instead. What else does he do with it?
Donate it to a different global health charity—Ok, doesn’t seem like too big a deal, my counterfactual impact is still to move money to a highly effective global health charity
Spend it on himself—Seems unlikely..?
Donate it to a different cause area, e.g. AI safety—so while I think I have supported global health, the counterfactual impact is actually to move more money to AI safety.
The second two possibilities seem surprising and important if true, and I’d be interested to hear more justification for this! Is there some evidence that this is really what happens?