Estimating valueNunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:36 UTCShapley values: Better than counterfactualsNunoSempere10 Oct 2019 10:26 UTC144 points54 comments15 min readEA linkShapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.NunoSempere10 Mar 2020 17:36 UTC35 points1 comment29 min readEA linkPredicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.NunoSempere22 Nov 2020 20:07 UTC62 points3 comments11 min readEA linkAn experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher’s workNunoSempere1 Dec 2020 9:01 UTC57 points23 comments10 min readEA linkRelative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize WinnersNunoSempere16 Mar 2021 17:11 UTC88 points35 comments18 min readEA link2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC194 points23 comments5 min readEA linkShallow evaluations of longtermist organizationsNunoSempere24 Jun 2021 15:31 UTC192 points34 comments34 min readEA linkAn estimate of the value of Metaculus questionsNunoSempere22 Oct 2021 17:45 UTC45 points19 comments8 min readEA linkExternal Evaluation of the EA WikiNunoSempere13 Dec 2021 17:09 UTC78 points18 comments19 min readEA linkSimple comparison polling to create utility functionsNunoSempere15 Nov 2021 19:48 UTC46 points13 comments6 min readEA linkFive steps for quantifying speculative interventionsNunoSempere18 Feb 2022 20:39 UTC94 points8 comments12 min readEA linkValuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchersNunoSempere17 Mar 2022 19:58 UTC114 points22 comments8 min readEA linkA Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice ReformNunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC302 points97 comments26 min readEA linkIntroduction to Fermi estimatesNunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC46 points8 comments7 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grantsNunoSempere12 Sep 2022 11:19 UTC111 points16 comments13 min readEA linkSimple estimation examples in SquiggleNunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC52 points13 comments7 min readEA linkFive slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC33 points0 comments7 min readEA linkBrief evaluations of top-10 billionnairesNunoSempere21 Oct 2022 15:29 UTC80 points66 comments6 min readEA linkMy highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC435 points116 comments14 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphoricalNunoSempere7 Mar 2023 23:33 UTC17 points12 comments1 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Estimation for sanity checksNunoSempere21 Mar 2023 0:13 UTC64 points7 comments4 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Some estimation work in the horizonNunoSempere29 Mar 2023 22:18 UTC25 points0 comments4 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)
