Estimating valueNunoSempereApr 1, 2021, 5:36 PMShapley values: Better than counterfactualsNunoSempereOct 10, 2019, 10:26 AM159 points62 comments15 min readEA linkShapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.NunoSempereMar 10, 2020, 5:36 PM35 points1 comment29 min readEA linkPredicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.NunoSempereNov 22, 2020, 8:07 PM62 points3 comments11 min readEA linkAn experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher’s workNunoSempereDec 1, 2020, 9:01 AM57 points23 comments10 min readEA linkRelative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize WinnersNunoSempereMar 16, 2021, 5:11 PM88 points35 comments18 min readEA link2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?NunoSempereJun 16, 2021, 5:31 PM194 points23 comments5 min readEA linkShallow evaluations of longtermist organizationsNunoSempereJun 24, 2021, 3:31 PM192 points34 comments34 min readEA linkAn estimate of the value of Metaculus questionsNunoSempereOct 22, 2021, 5:45 PM45 points19 comments8 min readEA linkExternal Evaluation of the EA WikiNunoSempereDec 13, 2021, 5:09 PM78 points18 comments19 min readEA linkSimple comparison polling to create utility functionsNunoSempereNov 15, 2021, 7:48 PM46 points13 comments6 min readEA linkFive steps for quantifying speculative interventionsNunoSempereFeb 18, 2022, 8:39 PM95 points8 comments12 min readEA linkValuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchersNunoSempereMar 17, 2022, 7:58 PM114 points22 comments8 min readEA linkA Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice ReformNunoSempereJun 16, 2022, 4:40 PM303 points97 comments26 min readEA linkIntroduction to Fermi estimatesNunoSempereAug 26, 2022, 10:03 AM47 points8 comments7 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grantsNunoSempereSep 12, 2022, 11:19 AM111 points16 comments13 min readEA linkSimple estimation examples in SquiggleNunoSempereSep 2, 2022, 9:37 AM52 points13 comments7 min readEA linkFive slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.NunoSempereOct 10, 2022, 2:42 PM33 points0 comments7 min readEA linkBrief evaluations of top-10 billionnairesNunoSempereOct 21, 2022, 3:29 PM81 points66 comments6 min readEA linkMy highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.NunoSempereJan 23, 2023, 8:08 PM436 points116 comments14 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphoricalNunoSempereMar 7, 2023, 11:33 PM17 points12 comments1 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Estimation for sanity checksNunoSempereMar 21, 2023, 12:13 AM64 points7 comments4 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)Some estimation work in the horizonNunoSempereMar 29, 2023, 10:18 PM25 points0 comments4 min readEA link(nunosempere.com)
