For other AI-related Cold Takes posts (not necessarily about forecasting AI), see this sequence: Cold Takes on AI Risk.

Consider also exploring the Most Important Century series.

One key post in this sequence:

• AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the “Experts,” Stand

  • This piece starts with a summary of when we should expect transformative AI to be developed, based on the multiple angles covered earlier in the series. I then address the question: “Why isn’t there a robust expert consensus on this topic, and what does that mean for us?”