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Question Mark Sep 7, 2021, 9:57 PM
25 points
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Brian Tomasik wrote a similar article several years ago on Predictions of AGI Takeoff Speed vs. Years Worked in Commercial Software. In general, AI experts with the most experience working in commercial software tend to expect a soft takeoff, rather than a hard takeoff.
- anonymous_ea Sep 8, 2021, 1:26 PM
  12 points
  0 ∶ 0
  Parent
  I appreciate you posting this picture, which I had not seen before. I just want to add that this was compiled in 2014, and some of the people in the picture have likely shifted in their views since then.
Elma Apr 11, 2023, 2:24 PM
2 points
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There seems to be a new expert survey of 2022 here: 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI – AI Impacts
( I am a beginner in AI, so correct me if I am wrong....)