One might think that most of the best opportunities to reduce existential risk over this century could be sufficiently justified solely on the grounds of reducing catastrophic risk to people who will live during this century. What do you think about that?
What are some central examples of practical overlap between the goals of reducing existential risk and reducing catastrophic risk this century? What are some central examples of practical divergence?
In The Precipice, you shared a personal estimate of the total risk of existential disaster in the next 100 years at ⅙.
What odds would you put on a catastrophe that leads us to record more than 500 million human deaths in a 12 month period before 2120?
Context: Our World in Data suggest that from 1950-present, 50-60 million people died each year. They estimate the number will be in the 60-120 million range up to 2100.