I am an Economist working at the Financial Risk Department of Banco de España (Spanish Central Bank). I was born in 1977 and I have recently finished my PhD Thesis (See ORCID webpage: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1623-0957 ).
Arturo Macias
Karma: 19
Of course! The detailed historical examples. No amount of abstract knowledge can substitute historical discussion.
In fact the academic version (the logic of political survival) is for me less interesting, because it is too much based on data analysis instead of cases.
Thank you very much! I think you will find this interesting:
The second epigraph is where it gets interesting for you:
This article surveys the evolutionary and game theoretical literature and suggests a new synthesis in the nature-nurture controversy. Gintian strong reciprocity is proposed as the main synthetic theory for evolutionary anthropology, and the thesis here defended is that the humanization process has been mainly one of “de-instinctivation”, that is, the substitution of hardwired behavior by the capabilities to handle cultural objects.
Simple feedback: read this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845
Think about politics in Darwinian terms: who survives the process?
It is well known. The Pax Democrática theory is well known (Bueno de Mesquita “the dictators handbook” is a fantastic reference) and suggests that the commitment capabilities and electoral incentives make democratic war unlikely and democratic alliances powerful.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vjQ5BhKnDyY35dXXf/chomsky-vs-pax-democratica
Thank you very much for the links. As an economist, I have always find growth the most important fact of economics, and growth theory the less interesting economic discipline.
What do we get out of this? Perhaps a better functional form for production functions?
But production functions are the most defective part of economic modelling. A way to allow economists to avoid the complexity of intersectoral linkages and explicit technology modelling [https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-540-75751-1]? I am a great fan of market clearing, and rational expectations are a tolerable simplification. But production functions are a form of surrender.
Most of the models in growth theory look to me far away from both policy recommendations, or econometric forecasting. They are “explanatory”, and mostly removed from observables. The Von Neumann criticism of complex models (“give me 4 parameters and I can draw an elephant, with 5 it can move its tail”) was the first I thought when I was taught the Romer model.
Is there any more representative country in the world between 1789 and let’s put the Civil War in 1864? Well, for sure Switzerland, but what else? Tocqueville opinion was that the US was not only formally, but also materially the most democratic among the world powers. I do not see many reason to doubt his observations.
Would UK have banned slavery if the US where still a British colony? Moreover, with a large un represented colonial empire of people of English descent, would the UK keep its parliamentarian path? Many British Whig took a pro colonial position for some reason…
Compared to what? How many countries had a more extensive political participation? Of course, slavery was an abyssal horror, but it was almost universally accepted until 1807.
Until that date America was the most democratic country in the world, and regarding slavery was not worse than others (in fact, half of America always resisted slavery, finally at an enormous cost).
As Tocqueville understood, democracy is auto catalytic. When you begin with a 3% franchise in 1688, the slope towards 100% is in place. By importing the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution both put the process in motion in a continental size nation and perhaps avoided involution in UK
Oh, sure. Both Washington and Lincoln were more interested in the United States than in slavery. This show that their priority was political instead of ethical. And they were magnificently right, because the United States is to some extent “a machinery of freedom”, an institutional system with the right bias, and that is more important than some material injustice here and now.
More over, I am not defending the ethical superiority of my chosen “saints”; I simply suggest that purity of intention is not the most important valuation criterium. I am simply taking a consequentialist reading of History.
Lincoln was always a very ruthless political operative, but we praise him because in the 1860s the direction of History was mostly “end slavery”.
In the 1770s, the frontier was “no taxation without representation”, and turning a blind eye to slavery was almost inevitable, specially if your political base was from Virginia.
Progress is about concentrating the social force in the place where it can lead to change.
That implies turning a blind eye to anything else.
William III began his career very probably by killing the de Witt brothers, and was always a very dry and extremely arrogant character. In Ireland probably he is still hated (by the Catholics).
But probably he and Newton are the most important persons of the Modern Era.
This is the dark side of Christianity (either religious or secular): salvation is only about ethics, so the rest or accomplishment is at most secondary, often suspicious.
What about Temistocles (for the Greek victory against the Persians), the Stadtholder King William III (for defeating the reactionary absolutism of Luis XIV and James II), Washington and Madison (for creating the United States), or Churchill for stopping Hitler?
Who shall we praise, those in the past that had the purest intentions, or those who brougth more progress? Some of the people I have selected have biographies full of cruel ambition and large scale crime. All of them were the architects of moral and material progress (mostly defeding the statu quo against reactionary forces).
Too much praise for Altruism, because it gets universal sympathy. But what about Effectiveness?
First of all, thanks for the suggestion. I will post this in the “Voting Theory Forum” (for papers I am also a participant in the “Decision Theory Forum”), and probably in electo wiki (the reddit looks too entropic).
I will read your paper and contact (by mail) you and Dr. Heitzig, including the gated version of my paper and some additional material and probably I will consult you on my next steps.
In any case, as commented before, in my view there is a massive difference between static voting and dynamic voting. With a single vote, Arrow is inevitable. When you vote many times in the i.i.d framework, you can communicate preference intensities, and the Arrow problem can be addressed. Unfortunately, when decisions interact, policy coordination by simple (sequential) voting looks intractable to me.
Thank you very much for your comment,
Arturo
Democracy beyond majoritarianism
The entire EMP problem is massively under researched and under funded. And there are both natural (Carrington Event) and man made (nuclear detonation) scenarios leading to it.
Both Lions and mosquitoes are enemies. As long as they are contained, I can tolerate them. Mosquitoes are not contained, so I want to nuke them from orbit.
In fact, my whole point is that while chosing is a very real concept, and it is important for ethical reasoning, we really don’t chose in the sense “I could have done otherwise” in this physicalist universe.
The fact that lions and mosquitoes can not change goes against them. The more determined is your hostility, more reasons I have to answer in kind.
Really I wanted to avoid goint into details (because I dont want to take insect sentience too seriously: that would be a defeat!), but this time is impossible:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nY7oAdy5odfGqE7mQ/freedom-under-naturalistic-dualism
:-)
If they are conscious they “chose” to do what they do. If not, they have not moral value.
The moralist question about what the mosquito chose while in surface is almost comical, points out to the serious problem of any extension of the moral circle to non reciprocating individuals.
In this case, it is totally unlikely the mosquito is conscious at all, but even if it is, how much should you accommodate its dangerous predation ?
But if they “don’t chose” how much do they “feel”? There is some tension in giving personhood but not responsability.
They are our worst enemy, killing us by the billions. Flying syringes.
https://www.amazon.com/Mosquito-Human-History-Deadliest-Predator/dp/1524743410
I would nuke them from orbit, no matter the consequences .
We are designed for social computation, not for individual rationality. Beyond the papers I comment in the pre-print, this book is a modern synthesis of Cultural Evolution Theory:
Cultural Evolution: How Darwinian Theory Can Explain Human Culture and Synthesize the Social Sciences
https://www.amazon.es/Cultural-Evolution-Darwinian-Synthesize-Sciences/dp/0226520447
Thank you for your reference of Gonzalez’s paper.