“Still, these types of tweets are influential, and are widely circulated among AI capabilities researchers.” I’m kind of skeptical of this.
Outside of Giada Pistilli and Talia Ringer I don’t think these tweets would appear on the typical ML researcher timeline, they seem closer to niche rationality/EA shitposting.
Whether the typical ML person would think alignment/AI x-risk is really dumb is a different question, and I don’t really know the answer to that one!
My $0.02 - (almost) the entire financial and crypto world, including many prominent VC funds that invested in FTX directly seem to have been blindsided by the FTX blowup. So I’m less concerned about the ability to foresee that. However the 2018 dispute at Alameda seems like good reason to be skeptical, and I’m very curious what what was known by prominent EA figures, what steps they took to make it right and whether SBF was confronted about it before prominent people joined the future fund etc.