In general, to me it seems quite fruitful to examine in more detail whether, in fact, multipolarity of various kinds might alleviate concerns about value fragility. And to those who have the intuition that it would (especially in cases, like Multipolar value fragility, where agent A’s exact values aren’t had by any of agents 1-n), I’d be curious to hear the case spelled out in more detail.
Here’s a case that I roughly believe: multipolarity means that there’s a higher likelihood that one’s own values will be represented because it gives them the opportunity to literally live in, and act in the world to bring about outcomes they personally want.
This case is simple enough, and it’s consistent with the ordinary multipolarity the world already experiences. Consider an entirely selfish person. Now, divide the world into two groups: the selfish person (which we call Group A) and the rest of the world (which we call Group B).
Group A and Group B have very different values, even “upon reflection”. Group B is also millions or billions of times more powerful than Group A (as it comprises the entire world minus the selfish individual). Therefore, on a naive analysis, you might expect Group B to “take over the world” and then implement its values without any regard whatsoever to Group A. Indeed, because of the vast power differential, it would be “very easy” for Group B to achieve this world takeover. And such an outcome would indeed be very bad according to Group A’s values.
Of course, this naive analysis is flawed, because the real world is multipolar in an important respect: usually, Group B will let Group A (the individual) have some autonomy, and let them receive a tiny fraction of the world’s resources, rather than murdering Group A and taking all their stuff. They will do this because of laws, moral norms, and respect for one’s fellow human. This multipolarity therefore sidesteps all the issues with value fragility, and allows Group A to achieve a pretty good outcome according to their values.
This is also my primary hope with misaligned AI. Even if misaligned AIs are collectively millions or billions of times more powerful than humans (or aligned AIs), I would hope they would still allow the humans or aligned AIs to have some autonomy, leave us alone, and let us receive a sufficient fraction of resources that we can enjoy an OK outcome, according to our values.
Speaking generally, it is true that humans are frequently hesitant to change the status quo, and economic shocks can be quite scary to people. This provides one reason to think that people will try to stop explosive growth, and slow down the rate of change.
On the other hand, it’s important to recognize the individual incentives involved here. On an individual, personal level, explosive growth is equivalent to a dramatic rise in real income over a short period of time. Suppose you were given the choice of increasing your current income by several-fold over the next few years. For example, if your real income is currently $100,000/year, then you would see it increase to $300,000/year in two years. Would you push back against this change? Would this rise in your personal income be too fast for your tastes? Would you try to slow it down?
Even if explosive growth is dramatic and scary on a collective and abstract level, it is not clearly bad on an individual level. Indeed, it seems quite clear to me that most people would be perfectly happy to see their incomes rise dramatically, even at a rate that far exceeded historical norms, unless they recognized a substantial and grave risk that would accompany this rise in their personal income.
If we assume that people collectively follow what is in each of their individual interests, then we should conclude that incentives are pretty strongly in favor of explosive growth (at least when done with low risk), despite the fact that this change would be dramatic and large.