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Charles Dillon 🔸

Karma: 1,508

Experienced quant trader, based in London. Formerly a volunteer at Rethink Priorities, where I did some forecasting research. Interested in most things, donations have been primarily to longtermism, animal welfare and meta causes.

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 🔸1 Oct 2021 18:57 UTC
60 points
14 comments8 min readEA link

An anal­y­sis of Me­tac­u­lus pre­dic­tions of fu­ture EA re­sources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon 🔸22 Sep 2021 10:24 UTC
50 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Open Phil Grants

Charles Dillon 🔸23 Jul 2021 14:00 UTC
57 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 🔸20 Jul 2021 9:07 UTC
81 points
2 comments7 min readEA link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles Dillon 🔸27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
121 points
7 comments23 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 🔸26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
38 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Charles Dillon ’s Quick takes

Charles Dillon 🔸3 Dec 2020 17:10 UTC
1 point
5 comments1 min readEA link