Charles Dillon 🔸

Karma: 1,550

Experienced quant trader, based in London. Formerly a volunteer at Rethink Priorities, where I did some forecasting research. Interested in most things, donations have been primarily to longtermism, animal welfare and meta causes.

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

Charles Dillon 🔸Oct 1, 2021, 6:57 PM

60 points

14 comments8 min readEA link

An analysis of Metaculus predictions of future EA resources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon 🔸Sep 22, 2021, 10:24 AM

50 points

2 comments8 min readEA link

Predicting Open Phil Grants

Charles Dillon 🔸Jul 23, 2021, 2:00 PM

57 points

9 comments2 min readEA link

An examination of Metaculus’ resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 🔸Jul 20, 2021, 9:07 AM

81 points

2 comments7 min readEA link

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

Charles Dillon 🔸May 27, 2021, 6:51 PM

125 points

7 comments23 min readEA link

[Question] What important questions are missing from Metaculus?

Charles Dillon 🔸May 26, 2021, 2:03 PM

38 points

12 comments1 min readEA link

Charles Dillon ’s Quick takes

Charles Dillon 🔸Dec 3, 2020, 5:10 PM

1 point

5 comments1 min readEA link

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Charles Dillon 🔸

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

An anal­y­sis of Me­tac­u­lus pre­dic­tions of fu­ture EA re­sources, 2025 and 2030

Pre­dict­ing Open Phil Grants

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?