We should be reluctant to make statements which could be taken as “scientific” justification for ignoring either of the previous bullet points
Thank you for stating plainly what I suspect the original doc was trying to hint at.
That said, now that it’s plainly stated, I disagree with it. The world is too connected for that.
Taken literally, “could be taken” is a ridiculously broad standard. I’m sure a sufficiently motivated reasoner could take “2+2=4″ as justification for racism. This is not as silly a concern as it sounds, since we’re mostly worried about motivated reasoners, and it’s unclear how motivated a reasoner we should be reluctant to offer comfort to. But let’s look at some more concrete examples:
In early 2020, people were reluctant to warn about covid-19 because it could be taken as justification for anti-chinese racism. I can’t actually follow the logic that goes from “A dangerous new disease emerged in China” to “I should go beat up someone of Chinese ancestry” but it seems a few people who had been itching for an excuse did. Nevertheless, given the relative death tolls, we clearly should have had more warnings and more preparations. The next pandemic will likely also emerge in a place containing people against whom racism is possible (base rate, if nothing else), and pandemic preparedness people need to be ready to act anyway.
Similarly, many people tried to bury the fact that monkeypox was sexually transmitted because it could lead to homophobia. So instead they warned of a coming pandemic. False warnings are extremely bad for preparedness, draining both our energy and our credibility.
Political and Economic Institutions are a potentially high-impact cause area in both near- and far-term (albeit, dubiously tractable). Investigating them is pretty much going to require looking at history, and at least sometimes saying that western institutions are better than others.
Going back to Bostrom’s original letter, many anti-racists have taken to denying the very idea of intelligence in order to reject it. Hard to work on super-intelligence-based x-risk (or many other things) without that concept.
I doubt porn-related child abuse is growing.
NCMEC says that reports of child porn are growing, but that could easily be reports per posting, postings per image, or images per activity. NCMEC just *counts* reports, which are either a member of the public clicking a “report” button or an algorithm finding suspicious content. They acknowledge that a significant part of the rise in from broader deployment of such algorithms.
Similarly, the fraction of porn-producing activities which involve traumatic abuse is unclear. And is likely declining, judging by common anecdotes of sexual teenage selfies. I realize anecdotes are weak evidence at best, but producing such images is becoming easier, and puberty ages are dropping, so I’ll stand by my weak claim.
NCMEC sites IWF as saying that “28% of CSAI images involve rape and sexual torture”, but I cannot find a matching statement in IWF’s report. The closest I find is “28% of these reports [from members of the public] correctly identified child sexual abuse images,” but IWF seems to regard any sexualized imagery of an under-18-year-old as “abuse”, even if no other person is involved.
In any case, the IWF report is from 2016 and clearly states that “self-produced content” is increasing, and the share of content which involves children under 10 is decreasing (10 is an awkward age to draw a line at, but it’s the one they reported on). Likely these trends continued into 2018.
On the meta level, I note that NCMEC and IWF are both organizations whose existence depends on the perceived severity of internet child porn problems, and NYT’s business model depends on general dislike of the internet. I don’t suspect any of these organizations of outright fraud, but I doubt they’ve been entirely honest either.