Forecasting Research Institute

Karma: 844

Introducing LEAP: The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel

Forecasting Research Institute10 Nov 2025 16:28 UTC

81 points

12 comments9 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.substack.com)

How well can large language models predict the future?

Forecasting Research Institute8 Oct 2025 14:53 UTC

32 points

2 comments1 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.substack.com)

Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament

Forecasting Research Institute2 Sep 2025 12:22 UTC

41 points

1 comment1 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.org)

Forecasting Biosecurity Risks from LLMs

Forecasting Research Institute1 Jul 2025 12:43 UTC

10 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.org)

Announcing ForecastBench, a new benchmark for AI and human forecasting abilities

Forecasting Research Institute1 Oct 2024 12:31 UTC

20 points

1 comment3 min readEA link

(arxiv.org)

Conditional Trees: Generating Informative Forecasting Questions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study

Forecasting Research Institute12 Aug 2024 16:24 UTC

44 points

2 comments8 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.org)

Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI)

Forecasting Research Institute11 Mar 2024 15:54 UTC

196 points

25 comments9 min readEA link

(forecastingresearch.org)

Input sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we’re hiring!)

Forecasting Research Institute29 Sep 2023 22:26 UTC

34 points

3 comments5 min readEA link

A selection of cross-cutting results from the XPT

Forecasting Research Institute26 Sep 2023 23:50 UTC

23 points

1 comment9 min readEA link

What do XPT results tell us about biorisk?

Forecasting Research Institute13 Sep 2023 20:05 UTC

23 points

2 comments11 min readEA link

What do XPT forecasts tell us about nuclear risk?

Forecasting Research Institute22 Aug 2023 19:09 UTC

23 points

0 comments14 min readEA link

XPT forecasts on (some) Direct Approach model inputs

Forecasting Research Institute20 Aug 2023 12:39 UTC

37 points

0 comments9 min readEA link

Summary of posts on XPT forecasts on AI risk and timelines

Forecasting Research Institute25 Jul 2023 8:42 UTC

28 points

5 comments4 min readEA link

XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs

Forecasting Research Institute24 Jul 2023 13:32 UTC

37 points

2 comments12 min readEA link

What do XPT forecasts tell us about AI timelines?

rosehadshar21 Jul 2023 8:30 UTC

29 points

1 comment13 min readEA link

What do XPT forecasts tell us about AI risk?

Forecasting Research Institute19 Jul 2023 7:43 UTC

100 points

21 comments14 min readEA link

Announcing “Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament”

Forecasting Research Institute10 Jul 2023 17:04 UTC

160 points

34 comments2 min readEA link