Forecasting Research Institute

An­nounc­ing Fore­castBench, a new bench­mark for AI and hu­man fore­cast­ing abilities

Con­di­tional Trees: Gen­er­at­ing In­for­ma­tive Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study

Re­sults from an Ad­ver­sar­ial Col­lab­o­ra­tion on AI Risk (FRI)

In­put sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we’re hiring!)

A se­lec­tion of cross-cut­ting re­sults from the XPT

What do XPT re­sults tell us about biorisk?

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about nu­clear risk?

XPT fore­casts on (some) Direct Ap­proach model inputs

Sum­mary of posts on XPT fore­casts on AI risk and timelines

XPT fore­casts on (some) biolog­i­cal an­chors inputs

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI timelines?

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI risk?

An­nounc­ing “Fore­cast­ing Ex­is­ten­tial Risks: Ev­i­dence from a Long-Run Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment”