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Forecasting Research Institute

Karma: 687

An­nounc­ing Fore­castBench, a new bench­mark for AI and hu­man fore­cast­ing abilities

Forecasting Research InstituteOct 1, 2024, 12:31 PM
20 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(arxiv.org)

Con­di­tional Trees: Gen­er­at­ing In­for­ma­tive Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study

Forecasting Research InstituteAug 12, 2024, 4:24 PM
43 points
2 comments8 min readEA link
(forecastingresearch.org)

Re­sults from an Ad­ver­sar­ial Col­lab­o­ra­tion on AI Risk (FRI)

Forecasting Research InstituteMar 11, 2024, 3:54 PM
193 points
25 comments9 min readEA link
(forecastingresearch.org)

In­put sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we’re hiring!)

Forecasting Research InstituteSep 29, 2023, 10:26 PM
34 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

A se­lec­tion of cross-cut­ting re­sults from the XPT

Forecasting Research InstituteSep 26, 2023, 11:50 PM
18 points
1 comment9 min readEA link

What do XPT re­sults tell us about biorisk?

Forecasting Research InstituteSep 13, 2023, 8:05 PM
23 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about nu­clear risk?

Forecasting Research InstituteAug 22, 2023, 7:09 PM
22 points
1 comment14 min readEA link

XPT fore­casts on (some) Direct Ap­proach model inputs

Forecasting Research InstituteAug 20, 2023, 12:39 PM
37 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Sum­mary of posts on XPT fore­casts on AI risk and timelines

Forecasting Research InstituteJul 25, 2023, 8:42 AM
28 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

XPT fore­casts on (some) biolog­i­cal an­chors inputs

Forecasting Research InstituteJul 24, 2023, 1:32 PM
37 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI timelines?

rosehadsharJul 21, 2023, 8:30 AM
29 points
0 comments13 min readEA link

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI risk?

Forecasting Research InstituteJul 19, 2023, 7:43 AM
97 points
21 comments14 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing “Fore­cast­ing Ex­is­ten­tial Risks: Ev­i­dence from a Long-Run Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment”

Forecasting Research InstituteJul 10, 2023, 5:04 PM
160 points
31 comments2 min readEA link