Forecasting Research Institute

An­nounc­ing Fore­castBench, a new bench­mark for AI and hu­man fore­cast­ing abilities

Con­di­tional Trees: Gen­er­at­ing In­for­ma­tive Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study

Re­sults from an Ad­ver­sar­ial Col­lab­o­ra­tion on AI Risk (FRI)

• Forecasting Research Institute 2 Oct 2023 20:15 UTC

  7 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: An­nounc­ing the Win­ners of the 2023 Open Philan­thropy AI Wor­ld­views Contest

  We’re honored to have received a prize for our work on the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)!
  
  We’re in the process of extending this work and better connecting forecasts to policy decisionmaking. If you’re interested in working on this and our other projects, we wanted to mention that we’re currently hiring for full-time Research Analysts and Data Analysts. We’re also hiring for part-time Research Assistants.

In­put sought on next steps for the XPT (also, we’re hiring!)

A se­lec­tion of cross-cut­ting re­sults from the XPT

What do XPT re­sults tell us about biorisk?

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about nu­clear risk?

XPT fore­casts on (some) Direct Ap­proach model inputs

Sum­mary of posts on XPT fore­casts on AI risk and timelines

XPT fore­casts on (some) biolog­i­cal an­chors inputs

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI timelines?

What do XPT fore­casts tell us about AI risk?

An­nounc­ing “Fore­cast­ing Ex­is­ten­tial Risks: Ev­i­dence from a Long-Run Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment”