We discuss US-China relations and avoiding nuclear war. Both are EA cause areas.
Gus Docker
I don’t think we can say yet that Samo’s forecasts have been “pretty wrong”.
As far as I’m aware, he’s only made this forecast:
“The Ukrainian forces are fighting valiantly and we are in the fog of war.
Given my best understanding of the military situation, Russia looks to occupy Kyiv as well as at least 70% of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory by Day 50 of the invasion.”
https://twitter.com/SamoBurja/status/1499883211748433932
And this forecast has not been resolved yet. I hope he’s wrong, of course.
I read Scott Alexander as criticising Samo for not making more specific predictions, which is fair.
And I think the reason Scott gives Samo a C is because of Samo’s February tweets about the Russian military being strong. To my mind, this is bound up with the above forecast. I don’t think we can say yet that Samo is wrong. Again, I hope he is.
Anyways, I thought Samo provided an interesting perspective about the situation more broadly.
Big fan of your blog, by the way :)
Podcast: Samo Burja on the war in Ukraine, avoiding nuclear war and the longer term implications
Thanks, me too.
If you have any questions for Samo, you could write them here.
Podcast: Bryan Caplan on open borders, UBI, totalitarianism, AI, pandemics, utilitarianism and labor economics
Thanks for making this list.
I’ll be recording a podcast with Samo on the 9th of March. We’ll discuss these themes as well as the consequences and possible solutions to underpopulation.
Neil Sinhababu on metaethics and world government for reducing existential risk
Podcast: Magnus Vinding on reducing suffering, why AI progress is likely to be gradual and distributed and how to reason about politics
Podcast: Krister Bykvist on moral uncertainty, rationality, metaethics, AI and future populations
Here is a great place to start: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org
[3-hour podcast]: Joseph Carlsmith on longtermism, utopia, the computational power of the brain, meta-ethics, illusionism and meditation
Glad you found it useful Peter
I’ve been very influenced by Hewitt’s meta-ethics myself, and I highly recommend reading her PhD. You can also get it in book form here: https://www.amazon.com/Feeling-Value-Grounded-Phenomenal-Consciousness/dp/1534768017/
[3-hour podcast]: Milan Cirkovic on the ethics of aliens, astrobiology and civilizations elsewhere in the universe
Glad you liked the episode :) I had limited time with Kent, so I didn’t get to ask him everything I wanted to ask. I hope to have more pleasure/pain scientists on in the future, maybe from the same lab.
[3-hour podcast] Michael Huemer on epistemology, metaethics, EA, utilitarianism and infinite ethics
Hi Filip
Thank you, glad you’re enjoying the podcast :)
The new method is persufflation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation#Persufflation
Thanks!
I don’t know whether QRI could test that hypothesis in such a setup. Based on what I know, they’re going to test the Symmetry Theory of Valence more directly.
Fantastic post! This is more informative AND more interesting than most philosophy papers on the topic. You accurately summarise meta-ethical hedonism and provide fair criticisms.
This is up there with your post on infinite ethics.
If I can find the time, I’ll write down why I disagree and post it here or send you an email.