GWWC board member, software engineer in Boston, parent, musician. Switched from earning to give to direct work in pandemic mitigation. Married to Julia Wise. Speaking for myself unless I say otherwise. Full list of EA posts: jefftk.com/ānews/āea
Jeff Kaufman šø
Karma: 15,542
SigĀnalĀing with Small Orange Diamonds
AdĀviĀsors for Smaller MaĀjor Donors?
Good post, thanks for writing it!
A quibble:
we should have different expectations for a 20-person organization with a $1 million budget than a 2-person $100,000 budget organization.
I know this is a sketch, but even if 100% of costs are labor both of these come out to fully-loaded costs of $50k/āemployee which seems quite low to me?
As someone who has raised funds from larger funders and is currently considering participating in marginal funding week, I donāt think that would work very well:
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Our main funders have a lot of context on our work, and so our grant applications are missing a lot of information that a typical Forum reader would need. This includes basic stuff like ā what problem are you trying to solve?ā
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Because we have engaged with these funders previously, portions of a funding requests can be discussion of specific issues they have previously raised, which might be pretty in the weeds for a Forum reader and require extra context.
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There is a lot of information you can share in a private grant request that you canāt make public. For example, specific quotes youāve received from potential partners on pricing, some kinds of strategic planning, potential partnership opportunities, or frank assessments of the capabilities of other organizations.
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Writing for public consumption requires more attention to how a wide range of potential readers, including both low context Forum readers and potential partners, would interpret things.
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I was specifically asking (and am still wondering) whether you stand by every individual point in your original post, such that it would be worth it for me to write a point-by-point response.
(Sometimes when people give high-level instructions to an LLM which results in output where theyāre willing to stand by the general message, but some of the specific claims arenāt actually what they believe. The same thing can also happen when hiring people: if I was trying to deeply engage with a company on one of their policies it wouldnāt be productive to write a point-by-point response to an answer Iād received from a first-line support representative.)
Iād be much more interested in reading your prompts to ChatGPT than the output it produced. I suspect this would make it much easier for me (and others) to understand your position.
Iām confused: this seems to me to be a restatement of your main point and not a response to my question?
I think the average community member is pretty savvy, and the communityās demonstrated deliberative skill in evaluating funding issues seems pretty strong.
I donāt know, this seems overly optimistic to me. The average community member doesnāt come in with much skill in evaluating nascent orgs, and is unlikely to get the kind of practice-with-feedback that would allow them to develop this skill.
people deferring somewhat to a ~randomly selected community screening jury (which could hopefully be at least medium-context)
Donor lottery winners?
Or, less flippantly, this seems to me what EA Funds and the other granting groups that give seed funding do.
I do think there are cases where someone has a good idea that isnāt a good match for any of these funders (ex: the Global Health and Development Fund isnāt accepting applications) or where the grantmakers are overworked, not omniscient, and not able to consider everything that they would ideally fund. In these cases I do think making a public case is good, but then it should either look like:
An appeal for āangelsā who are interested in engaging somewhat deeply with the org to advise and fund it.
An appeal for seed funders that gives enough detail that they can make an informed decision without personal engagement. I think @Habiba Banu and Roxanne Hestonās SpiroāNew TB charity raising seed funds post is an example of doing this well.
generated what I wanted to say
Overall, do you stand by your comment? If I wrote a point-by-point response would some points get a āthatās just something the LLM put in because it seemed plausible and isnāt actually my viewā?
ApĀpealĀing to the Public
Diana Fleischman, an evolutionary psychologist at the University of New Mexico, has a part-time role hosting Aporiaās podcast, and is the author of an article on the website headlined: āYouāre probably a eugenicist.āā
That article (Aporia: Youāre probably a eugenicist) seems to be the same article she has on her Substack (Dissentient: Youāre probably a eugenicist) and that you refer to above (EA Forum: Most people endorse some form of āeugenicsā), which was also initially titled the same.
Which is to say: donāt double-count, and donāt treat the non-linked āYouāre probably a eugenicistā as if it has worse content than the linked āMost people endorse some form of āeugenicsāā.
TestĀing GeĀnetic EngĀineerĀing DeĀtecĀtion with Spike-Ins
Start an UpĀper-Room UV InĀstalĀlaĀtion ComĀpany?
Your argument that you would effectively be forced into becoming an anti-animal advocate if you convincingly wrote up your viewsāsorry I donāt really buy it.
I would be primarily known as an anti-animal advocate if I wrote something like this, even if I didnāt want to be.
On whether I would need to put my time into continuing to defend the position, I agree that I strictly wouldnāt have to, but I think that given my temperament and interaction style I wouldnāt actually be able to avoid this. So I need to think of this as if I am allocating a larger amount of time than what it would take to write up the argument.
Ah, thank you for clarifying! That is a much stronger sense of ādoing a good jobā than I was going for. I was trying to point at something like, successfully writing up my views in a way that felt like a solid contribution to the discourse. Explaining what I thought, why I thought it, and why I didnāt find the standard counter arguments convincing. I think this would probably take me about two months of full-time work, so a pretty substantial opportunity cost.
I think I could do this well enough to become the main person people pointed at when they wanted to give an example of a ādonāt value animalsā EA (which would probably be negative for my other work), but even major success here would probably only result in convincing <5% of animal-focused EAs to change what they were working on. And much less than that for money, since most of the EA money is from OP, which funds animal work as part of an explicit process of worldview diversification.
Iād be interested to know how likely you think it is that you could do a āgood jobā.
I do think I could do a good job, yes. While Iāve been thinking about these problems off and on for over a decade Iāve never dedicated actual serious time here, and in the past when Iāve put that kind of time into work Iāve been proud of what Iāve been able to do.
You say you have a ābundle of intuitions and thoughtsā which doesnāt seem like much to me.
What I meant by that is that I donāt have my overall views organized into a form optimized for explaining to others. Iām not asking other people to assume that because Iāve inscrutably come to this conclusion Iām correct or that they should defer to me in any way. But Iād also be dishonest if I didnāt accurately report my views.
In your original comment you say āThis isnāt as deeply a considered view as Iād likeā. Were you saying you havenāt considered deeply enough or that the general community hasnāt?
Primarily the former. While if someone in the general community had put a lot of time into looking at this question from a perspective similar to my own and I felt like their work addressed my questions that would certainly help, given that no one has and Iām instead forming my own view I would prefer to have put more work into that view.
Jeff because he doesnāt seem to have provided any justification (from what Iāve seen) for the claim that animals donāt have relevant experiences that make them moral patients. He simply asserts this as his view. Itās not even an argument, let alone a strong one.
I agree I havenāt given an argument on this. At various times people have asked what my view is (ex: weāre taking here about something prompted by my completing a survey prompt) and Iāve given that.
Explaining why I have this view would be a big investment in time: I have a bundle of intuitions and thoughts that put me here, but converting that into a cleanly argued blog post would be a lot more work than I would normally do for fun and I donāt expect this to be fun.
This is especially the case because If I did a good job at this I might end up primarily known for being an anti-animal advocate, and since I think my views on animals are much less important than many of my other views, I wouldnāt see this as at all a good thing. I also expect that, again, conditional on doing a good job of this, I would need to spend a lot of time as a representative of this position: responding to the best counter arguments, evaluating new information as it comes up, people wanting me to participate in debates, animal advocates thinking that changing my mind is really very important for making progress toward their goals. These are similarly not where I want to put my time and energy, either for altruistic reasons personal enjoyment.
The normal thing to do would be to stop here: Iāve said what my view is, and explained why Iāve never put the effort into a careful case for that position. But Iām more committed to transparency than I am to the above, so Iām going to take about 10 minutes (I have 14 minutes before my kids wake up) to very quickly sketch the main things going into my view. Please read this keeping in mind that it is something I am sharing to be helpful, and Iām not claiming itās fully argued.
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The key question for me is whether, in a given system, thereās anyone inside to experience anything.
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I think extremely small collections of neurons (ex: nematodes) can receive pain, in the sense of updating on inputs to generate less of some output. But I draw a distinction between pain and suffering, where the latter requires experience. And I think itās very unlikely nematodes experience anything.
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I donāt think this basic pleasure or pain matters, and if you canāt make something extremely morally good by maximizing the number of happy neurons per cubic centimeter.
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Iām pretty sure that most adult humans do experience things, because I do and I can talk to other humans about this.
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I think it is pretty unlikely that very young children, in their first few months, have this kind of inner experience.
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I donāt find most things that people give as examples for animal consciousness to be very convincing, because you can often make quite a simple system that displays these features.
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While some of my views above could imply that some humans are more valuable come up morally than others, I think it would be extremely destructive to act that way. Lots and lots of bad history there. I treat all people as morally equal.
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The arguments for extending this to people as a class donāt seem to me to justify extending this to all creatures as a class.
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I also think there are things that matter beyond experienced joy and suffering (preference satisfaction, etc), and Iām even less convinced that animals have these.
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Eliezerās view is reasonably close to mine, in places where Iāve seen him argue it.
(Iām not going to be engaging with object level arguments on this issueāIām not trying to become an anti-animal advocate.)
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The survey question was, in Dutch:
Imagine the worst suffering a [dog, bird, fish (for example a salmon), shrimp, fly] can experience. Try to compare this suffering with the worst suffering a human can experience. How intense or severe do you think is the worst suffering of a [dog, bird, fish, shrimp, fly] for an hour compared to the worst suffering of a human for an hour?
The detailed results are here, including a histogram for birds:
Whether the answers to this question imply moral equivalence between humans and birds, though, depends on the assumption that the respondents are something close to hedonistic utilitarians, and I doubt they are? For example, if the survey had instead given questions specifically about moral weight (āhow many birds would you need to be saving from an hour of intense suffering before youād prioritize that over doing the same for a humanā, etc) youād have seen different answers.
I donāt think of putting a small orange diamond only in my EA Forum username as targeting EAs first, but instead that I want to communicate differently with different audiences?
On the Forum mostly people know what the diamond is, and putting it in my username helps communicate that pledging is normal and common.
Elsewhere, I think it would work more as you describe, as a potential conversation starter and an opportunity to introduce people to effective giving. But because of the downsides I describe in the post, in other environments I prefer to do this in words. This also works better as I advocate for more different things: I can write some posts advocating effective giving, other posts advocating letting people build more housing, etc.
I do think that if I were more shy and less willing to discuss effective giving (and if I didnāt have a range of other things I was advocating for) putting a diamond in my general social media profiles would make more sense.