Jérémy A🔸

An­nounc­ing: biose­cu­rity.world

Crit­i­cal Re­view of Model­ling Strate­gies against Pandemics

• Jérémy A🔸 30 Aug 2023 13:13 UTC

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: An­nounc­ing the AI Fables Writ­ing Con­test!

  The Lion, The Dove, The Monkey, and the Bees

• Jérémy A🔸 19 Jul 2022 10:32 UTC

  8 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions of Cost-Effec­tive­ness can be misleading

  Thanks for raising this question! Following other comment, I find the use of $\frac{mean\left(cost\right)}{mean\left(effect\right)}$ somewhat unsatisfactory.
  
  Perhaps some of the confusion could be reduced by i) taking into account the number of interventions and ii) distinguishing the following two situations:

  1. Epistemic uncertainty: the magic intervention will always save 1 life, or always save 100 lives, or always save 199 lives, we just don’t know. In this case, one can repeat the intervention as many times as one wants, the expected cost-effectiveness will remain ~$3,400/​life.

  2. True randomness: sometimes the magic intervention will save 1 life, sometimes 100 lives, sometimes 199 lives. What happens then if you repeat it n times? If $n=1$, your expectation is still ~$3400/​life (tail risk of a single life saved). But the more interventions you do, the more you converge to a combined cost-effectiveness $100/​life (see figure below), because failed interventions will probably be compensated by very successful ones.

  

  (R code to reproduce the plot : X <- sample(1:20,1000000, replace=T) ; Y <- sapply(X,function(n)mean(10000*n/sum(sample(c(1,100,199), n, replace = T)))) ; plot(X, Y, log="y", pch=19, col=alpha("forestgreen", 0.3), xlab="Number of interventions", ylab="Cost-effectiveness ($/life, log scale)", main="Expected cost to save a live decreases with more interventions") ; lines(sort(unique(X)), sapply(sort(unique(X)), function(x)mean(Y[X==x])), lwd=3, col=alpha("darkgreen",0.5)))

  I’m not sure how to translate this into practice, especially since you can consider EA interventions as a portfolio even if you don’t repeat the intervention 10 times yourself. But do you find this framing useful?

  What links here?

  • Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions of Cost-Effec­tive­ness can be misleading by Lorenzo Buonanno🔸 (18 Jul 2022 17:42 UTC; 70 points)
  • Lorenzo Buonanno🔸's comment on Prob­a­bil­ity dis­tri­bu­tions of Cost-Effec­tive­ness can be misleading by Lorenzo Buonanno🔸 (19 Jul 2022 11:42 UTC; 1 point)