P(it goes world scale pandemic) = 1⁄3, if I believe the exponential spreading math (hard to get my human intuition behind) and the long, symptom less, contagious incubation period
How do you arrive at 1⁄3 here?
P(it goes world scale pandemic) = 1⁄3, if I believe the exponential spreading math (hard to get my human intuition behind) and the long, symptom less, contagious incubation period
How do you arrive at 1⁄3 here?
Thanks. I’ve updated towards your estimate but 1⁄3 still seems high by my (all too human) intuitions.
3. This means the virus is going to spread. Both models and reference class forecasting against diseases with similar R0 suggest that a large fraction of the population will be infected before treatments arrive, e.g. Harvard School of Public Health’s Marc Lipsitch citing 40-70% of population infected.
Do you have any thoughts on the Metaculus estimate?
your face
To clarify- is it face or mucous membranes? I’ve seen ‘face’ everywhere, and I can’t really understand how touching my forehead would infect. Thanks!
Thanks for making this!
A nitpick: the top-left Harvard logo should IMO be a few pixels toward center.
How did you arrive at the 100k figure?