Do the expected values of the output probability distributions equal the point estimates that GiveWell gets from their non-probabilistic estimates? If not, how different are they?
More generally, are there any good write-ups about when and how the expected value of a model with multiple random variables differs from the same model filled out with the expected value of each of its random variables?
(I didn’t find the answer skimming through, but it might be there already—sorry!)
Do the expected values of the output probability distributions equal the point estimates that GiveWell gets from their non-probabilistic estimates? If not, how different are they?
More generally, are there any good write-ups about when and how the expected value of a model with multiple random variables differs from the same model filled out with the expected value of each of its random variables?
(I didn’t find the answer skimming through, but it might be there already—sorry!)