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AI Risk Intro 2: Solving The Problem
AI Risk Intro 1: Advanced AI Might Be Very Bad
I mentioned the danger of bringing in people mostly driven by personal gain (though very briefly). I think your point about niche weirdo groups finding some types of coordination and trust very easy is underrated. As other posts point out the transition to positive personal incentives to do EA stuff is a new thing that will cause some problems, and it’s unclear what to do about it (though as that post also says, “EA purity” tests are probably a bad idea).
I think the maximally-ambitious view of the EA Schelling point is one that attracts anyone who fits into the intersection of altruistic, ambitious / quantitative (in the sense of caring about the quantity of good done and wanting to make that big), and talented/competent in relevant ways. I think hardcore STEM weirdness becoming a defining EA feature (rather than just a hard-to-avoid incidental feature of a lot of it) would prevent achieving this.
In general, the wider the net you want to cast, the harder it is to become a clear Schelling point, both for cultural reasons (subgroup cultures tend more specific than their purpose strictly implies, and broad cultures tend to split), and for capacity reasons (it’s harder to get many than few people to hear about something, and also simple practical things like big conferences costing more money and effort).
There is definitely an entire different post (or more) that could be written about how much and which parts of EA should be Schelling point or platform -type thing and comparing the pros and cons. In this post I don’t even attempt to weigh this kind of choice.
Much EA value comes from being a Schelling point
I agree that in practice x-risk involves different types of work and people than e.g. global poverty or animal welfare. I also agree that there is a danger of x-risk / long-termism cannibalizing the rest of the movement, and this might easily lead to bad-on-net things like effectively trading large amounts of non-x-risk work for very little x-risk / long-termist work (because the x-risk people would have done found their work anyway had x-risk been a smaller fraction of the movement, but as a consequence of x-risk preeminence a lot of other people are not sufficiently attracted to even start engaging with EA ideas).
However, I worry about something like intellectual honesty. Effective Altruism, both the term and the concept, are about effective forms of helping other people, and lots of people keep coming to the conclusion that preventing x-risks is one of the best ways of doing so. It seems almost intellectually dishonest to try to cut off or “hide” (in the weak sense of reducing the public salience of) the connection. One of the main strengths of EA is that it keeps pursuing that whole “impartial welfarist good” thing even if it leads to weird places, and I think EA should be open about the fact that it seems weird things follow from trying to do charity rigorously.
I think ideally this looks like global poverty, animal welfare, x-risk, and other cause areas all sitting under the EA umbrella, and engaged EAs in all of these areas being aware that the other causes are also things that people following EA principles have been drawn towards (and therefore prompted to weigh them against each other in their own decisions and cause prioritization). Of course this also requires that one cause area does not monopolize the EA image.
I agree with your concern about the combination seeming incongruous, but I think there are good ways to pitch this while tying them all into core EA ideas, e.g. something like:
If you start thinking quantitatively about how to do the most good, you might realize that some especially promising ways of doing good are are cases where
-there is clear evidence that a small amount of money goes far, like helping extremely poor people in developing countries
-some suffering has clearly not historically been taken into account, like animal welfare
-the stakes are absolutely huge, like plausible catastrophes that might affect the entire world
I think you also overestimate the cultural congruence between non-x-risk causes like, for example, global poverty and animal welfare. These concerns span from hard-nosed veteran economists who think everything vegan is hippy nonsense and only people matter morally, to young non-technical vegans with concern for everything right down to worms. Grouping these causes together only looks normal because you’re so used to EA.
(likewise, I expect low weirdness gradients between x-risk and non-x-risk causes, e.g. nuclear risk reduction policy and developing-country economic development, or GCBRs and neglected diseases)
There is currently an active cofounder matching process going on for an organisation to do this, expected to finish in late mid-June and with work starting at the latest a month or two later. Feel free to DM me or Marc-Everin Carauleanu (who independently submitted this idea to the FTX FF idea competition) if you want to know more.
Anything concrete about the exact nature of what service alignment researchers most need, how much this problem is estimated to block progress on alignment, pros and cons of existing orgs each having their own internal service for this, and how large the alignment-related data market are very welcome.
A possible introduction-to-EA essay
I spoke with Yonatan at EAGx Oxford. Yonatan was very good at drilling down to the key uncertainties and decision points.
The most valuable thing was that he really understood the core “make something that people really want” lesson for startups. I thought I understood this (and at least on some abstract level did), but after talking with Yonatan I now have a much stronger model of what it actually takes to make sure you’re doing this in the real world, and a much better idea of what the key steps in a plan between finding a problem and starting a company around it should be.
New academic publishing system
Research that will help us improve, Epistemic Institutions, Empowering Exceptional People
It is well-known that the incentive structure for academic publishing is messed up. Changing publish-or-perish incentives is hard. However, one particular broken thing is that some journals operate on a model where they rent out their prestige to both authors (who pay to have their works accepted) and readers (who pay to read), extracting money from both while providing little value except their brand. This seems like a situation that could be disrupted, though probably not directly through competing on prestige with the big journals. Alternatives might look like something simple like expanding the scope of free preprint services like arXiv to bioRxiv to every field, or something more complicated like providing high-quality help and services for paper authors to incentivize them to submit to the new system. If established, a popular and prestigious academic publishing system would also be a good platform from which to push other academia-related changes (especially incentivizing the right kinds of research).
Regular prizes/awards for EA art
Effective Altruism
Works of art (e.g. stories, music, visual art) can be a major force inspiring people to do something or care about something. Prizes can directly lead to work (see for example the creative writing contest), but might also have an even bigger role in defining and promoting some type of work or some quality in works. Creating a (for example) annual prize/award scheme might go a long way towards defining and promoting an EA-aligned genre (consider how the existence of Hugo and Nebula awards helps define and promote science fiction). The existence of a prestigious / high-paying prize for the presence of specific qualities in a work is also likely to draw attention to those qualities more broadly; news like “Work X wins award for its depiction of [thoughtful altruism] / [the long-term future] / [epistemic rigor under uncertainty]” might make those qualities more of a conversation topic and something that more artists want to depict and explore, with knock-on effects for culture.
Prosocial social platforms
Epistemic institutions, movement-building, economic growth
The existing set of social media platforms is not particularly diverse, and existing platforms also often create negative externalities: reducing productive work hours, plausibly lowering epistemic standards, and increasing signalling/credentialism (by making easily legible credentials more important, and in some cases reducing the dimensionality of competition, e.g. LinkedIn reducing people to their most recent jobs and place of study, again making the competition for credentials in those things harsher). An enormous amount of value is locked away because valuable connections between people don’t happen.
It might be very high-value to search through the set of possible social platforms and try to find ones that (1) make it easy to find valuable connections (hiring, co-founders, EA-aligned people, etc.) and trust in the people found through that process, (2) provide incentives to help other people and do useful things, and (3) de-emphasize unhealthy credentialism.
Contests like this seem to generate great content!
Meta note: is there some systematic way to discover and hear about EA forum contests/prizes? My experience is that despite checking the forum front page fairly often, usually when the winning entries show up on the front page. Some page on the forum listing all prizes would be useful – does this exist?
I broadly agree with the some of the other commenters. The goals of the EA Forum are different from those of Twitter, Reddit, and Facebook. There may well be a case for more audiovisual, engagement-optimized EA content, but moving the forum in the direction of engagement-optimized visually-flashy internet platforms seems like a mistake (especially because such content can be hosted on platforms optimized for it, as RyanCarey suggests in his comment, while maintaining the EA Forum as one of the rare sites based on long-form text).
In terms of specific things, the text-only nature of the front page in particular is a big asset for ease of getting information (can scan titles quickly), and for avoiding the tragedy-of-commons -style failure mode where images massively help with getting attention so everyone puts a flashy image on their post and now you have to scroll past lots of visual noise while still just reading the titles like before. (Note that my opinions on this matter are definitely personal and idiosyncratic; other people might find they prefer scrolling past a longer section of aesthetically-pleasing images over staring at a shorter chunk of stark text.)
In terms of more general points, I think the people who worry about how the medium affects the message are on to something – e.g. Amusing Ourselves to Death shaped my thinking on this and seems to point at a real and big problem.
That being said:
Comments attached to podcast timestamps is a great idea (as is everything that makes podcasts more searchable, easier to navigate through, and possible to consume in ways that aren’t hitting play at the start and listening through the entire thing).
I’ve heard people saying it feels like there’s a high barrier to posting on the forum. Things that make the Forum more informal and approachable seem good on net. One way to achieve this might be if some parts of it gave off a vibe that is associated with informal entertaining social media (i.e. jokes/memes acceptable). I strongly endorse things like Kat Woods’ post on on fun writing, and people creating value by putting funny things in posts.
Maybe the greatest gains are in interactive media? On the very elaborate side, there are sites like this that plausibly cut the learning/grokking effort for concepts like iterated prisoner’s dilemma or alternative voting methods by an order of magnitude. Even on a more limited level, being able to embed things like small interactive Javascript/Python-powered widgets or interactive Matplotlib graphs in posts might be high-value.
For “virtual/intellectual hub”, the central example in my mind was the EA Forum, and more generally the way in which there’s a web of links (both literal hyperlinks and vaguer things) between the Forum, EA-relevant blogs, work put out by EA orgs, etc. Specifically in the sense that if you stumble across and properly engage with one bit of it, e.g. an EA blog post on wild animal suffering, then there’s a high (I’d guess?) chance you’ll soon see a lot of other stuff too, like being aware of centralised infrastructure like the Forum and 80k advising, and becoming aware of the central ideas like cause prio and x-risk. Therefore maybe the virtual/physical distinction was a bit misleading, and the real distinction is more like “Schelling point for intellectual output / ideas” vs “Schelling point for meeting people”.
That being said, a point that comes to mind is that geographic dispersion is one of the most annoying things for real-world Schelling points and totally absent* if you do it virtually, so maybe there’s some perspective like “don’t think about EAGx Virtual as recreating an EAG but virtually, but rather as a chance to create a meeting-people-Schelling-point without the traditional constraints, and maybe this ends up looking more ambitious”?
(*minus timezones, but you can mail people melatonin beforehand :) )