What a great post- this was really interesting and we really should place a higher value on everyday friendship, as well as sometimes just valuing common humanity above an overly rational view of future good that might ultimately fail by dismissing some important human factors as trivial. And I’m definitely up for a friendship religion too. (Ok, I suppose that’s technically the Quakers already, but I know what you mean!)
Also, you’re a great writer and just come across as really personable and entertaining. I’m going to be slightly disappointed whenever a serious discussion of longtermism on here doesn’t also include at least one Saweetie reference now!
Thank you for a great and detailed summary of the issue Siebe!
As recent developments seem like quite a major improvement (even if at least temporarily)- for the Nov 22 update to new cases, are any major causes emerging yet for the increase in less than one year recoveries and reduction in severe LC cases? And when over the next few years would you expect the numbers to grow significantly, as a rough estimate?
Less positively, I really agree about the potential for cognitive decline via asymptomatic LC to impact decision-making of those in power. If most people, including those in power, get Covid and even mild cases might cause a small intelligence drop, if enough potentially hazardous situations happen, even this small decline could be enough to tip the balance in an international crisis. Even if this might be bad and not disastrous in some arenas and some mistakes can be corrected, perhaps just one miscalculation is most worrying for potential nuclear diplomacy/crises? (E.g. if Stanislav Petrov helped to save the world from an accidental nuclear war by quickly reaching the conclusions that a system malfunction was more likely than a small enemy nuclear first-strike, might a future ‘mild/moderate brain fog Petrov’ not interpret any unexpected information quite so well?)
On treatment, do you have any opinion on Low Dose Naltrexone, which many ME/CFS sufferers have found beneficial and, according to at least some very preliminary evidence, might be useful for LC? And as a final question, though I don’t doubt there’s a significant drop, do you also know if there are any good studies on the average happiness/life satisfaction loss of LC sufferers?
Either way, I hope you’re feeling as good as possible with your LC experience (from someone with previous/managed experience of ME/CFS) and thanks again for a great post.