LHA

• LHA 3 Nov 2025 1:58 UTC

  3 points

  2 ∶ 0

  on: Hu­man­iz­ing Ex­pected Value

  Thanks for this!

  First came across a similar argument in Joe Carlsmith’s series on expected utility (this section in particular). The rest of that essay has some other interesting arguments, though the one you’ve highlighted here is the part I’ve generally found myself remembering and coming back to most.

• LHA 8 Jul 2022 1:42 UTC

  1 point

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Effec­tive­ness is a Con­junc­tion of Multipliers

  I think I feel a bit confused with the concept of it being crucial to “stack a bunch of multipliers.”

  Like how would you describe this story:

  A student is planning a career working on US economic policy (because this is something he’s had an interest in for a little while). Then, he is exposed to some ideas in longtermism and decides to instead work on AI policy instead (because he thinks it seems like a big deal and is probably more important than economic policy).

  This feels to me like it’s just “one step” or “one multiplier” that puts this student on a much higher EV career path.

[Question] What are the best re­sources on com­par­ing x-risk pre­ven­tion to im­prov­ing the value of the fu­ture in other ways?

• LHA 24 Jun 2022 4:03 UTC

  2 points

  0 ∶ 0

  on: Some po­ten­tial les­sons from Car­rick’s Con­gres­sional bid

  Curious about this part:

  “To be concrete, my personal best guess is that >30% of American EAs would have at least a decent shot (say, >20%) of making it into Congress if they chose to dedicate themselves to their local community and spend time practicing the appropriate communication skills.”

  Would be curious for a bit more explanation from OP or others on this part.