LuisEUrtubey

Karma: 78

Luis Enrique Urtubey is a Director at Good Judgment Inc, where he is responsible for Good Judgment Open. He is a Superforecaster since Year 1 of the “IARPA/ACE” research project, where he was ranked #1 in his experimental condition and #2 overall.

LuisEUrtubey Aug 25, 2022, 11:25 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: How to do theoretical research, a personal perspective
Great selection of sources on the work of theorizing in the social sciences, if of interest:
https://twitter.com/LarsJohannessen/status/1559221205441323013
https://twitter.com/LarsJohannessen/status/1560169368146903042

Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change

LuisEUrtubeyAug 19, 2022, 6:05 PM

48 points

0 comments2 min readEA link

Forecasting “Climate Change and the Long-term Future”

LuisEUrtubeyJul 23, 2022, 12:12 AM

5 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

“Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?”

LuisEUrtubeyApr 15, 2022, 10:07 PM

3 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

Comparing Superforecasting and the Intelligence Community Prediction Market

LuisEUrtubeyApr 12, 2022, 9:24 AM

29 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

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LuisEUrtubey

Su­perfore­cast­ing Long-Term Risks and Cli­mate Change

Fore­cast­ing “Cli­mate Change and the Long-term Fu­ture”

“Be­fore 5 Au­gust 2022, will Rus­sia deto­nate a nu­clear de­vice out­side of Rus­sian ter­ri­tory or airspace?”

Com­par­ing Su­perfore­cast­ing and the In­tel­li­gence Com­mu­nity Pre­dic­tion Market

Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change

Forecasting “Climate Change and the Long-term Future”

“Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?”

Comparing Superforecasting and the Intelligence Community Prediction Market