I do independent research on EA topics. I write about whatever seems important, tractable, and interesting (to me).
I have a website: https://mdickens.me/ Much of the content on my website gets cross-posted to the EA Forum, but I also write about some non-EA stuff over there.
My favorite things that I’ve written: https://mdickens.me/favorite-posts/
I used to work as a software developer at Affirm.
I spent a few days thinking about this but I struggled to come up with a bet structure that I was confident was good for both of us. The financial implications of this sort of bet are complicated. I didn’t want to spend more time on it so I’ll punt on this for now but I will keep it in the back of my mind in case I come up with anything.